Unbeaten Champ Nyquist Strong Choice in Final Derby Futures Pool

Apr 04, 2016 John Asher and Darren Rogers

Reddam Racing LLC’s reigning 2-year-old champion Nyquist (#16), who extended his record to seven wins without a loss with his emphatic victory in Saturday’s $1 million Florida Derby (Grade I), stood as the strong 3-1 favorite to win the $2 million-guaranteed Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (GI) when three days of wagering concluded Sunday, April 3 in the fourth and final pool of Churchill Downs Racetrack’s Kentucky Derby Future Wager (“KDFW’). 

               Nyquist’s closing KDFW Pool 4 final odds were lower than the 5-1 odds on Zayat Stables’ American Pharoah in the last of four 2015 Derby Futures pools. That three-day pool was conducted prior to American Pharoah’s runaway victory in the Arkansas Derby (GII), which made the Bob Baffert trainee a strong post-time favorite for the $2 million-guaranteed Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (GI) at Churchill Downs. American Pharoah scored a hard-fought victory in the 2015 “Run for the Roses” on his way to becoming the first 3-year-old Thoroughbred since Affirmed in 1978 to sweep the American Triple Crown that consists of the Kentucky Derby, Preakness (GI) and Belmont Stakes (GI) in 1978, and helped earn Horse of the Year honors for the Ahmed Zayat homebred. 

               Total wagering over three days in KDFW Pool 4 stood at $435,358 when betting close on Sunday, April 3 at 6 p.m. EDT.  The total is the fifth-highest for the final individual pool in the 17-year-history of the Derby Future bet. It included $282,929 in win wagers and a record $152,428 in exacta bets. Wagering in the April 1-3 pool lifted total betting in the four 2016 Kentucky Derby Future Wager pools to $1,379,358, an increase of 4.3% from the 2015 Pool 4 total of $417,473. When totals for the single pools of the new Kentucky Derby Sire Future Wager and Kentucky Oaks Future Wager are added, total wagering on Churchill Downs’ Future Wagers for 2016 totaled $1,518,320. 

Nyquist grabbed the position of KDFW Pool 4 favorite after a lopsided victory in his Florida Derby showdown with Shadwell Stable’s previously unbeaten Mohaymen (#14) who had been a solid favorite in KDFW Pools 2 and 3 and was installed by odds maker Mike Battaglia as the 7-2 favorite in Pool 4 morning line odds. The Doug O’Neill-trained son of Uncle Mo was still the 9-2 KDFW second choice to Mohaymen, who was then at 7-2, when the first-time racing rivals entered the Florida Derby starting gate.  But the odds on Nyquist tumbled after his front-running 3 ½-length victory in the 1 1/8-mile Kentucky Derby prep. Mohaymen briefly challenged the winner on the far turn, but faded to fourth in the first loss of his career.  

Shortly after the Florida Derby result was ruled official, Nyquist was bet-down to the favorite’s role in Pool 4. His odds held at 5-2 for most of Saturday evening and Sunday before rising to 3-1 in the final minutes before Sunday’s conclusion of betting. His 3-1 closing odds for Pool 4 are the lowest since his sire Uncle Mo was 3-1 in 2011. 

The Kiaran McLaughlin-trained Mohaymen closed as Pool 4’s 8-1 second choice, while odds on the always popular “All Others” or Mutuel Field (#24), which included every 3-year-old other than the 23 individual horses on the Pool 4 betting roster, dropped in the final minutes to stand as the 10-1 third choice. Next in line were Rebel (GII) winner Cupid (#4) and Los Alamitos Futurity (GI) winner Mor Spirit (#15), both trained by four-time Kentucky Derby winner Baffert and each an 11-1 risk. Then came Louisiana Derby (GII) winner Gun Runner (#10, 13-1), San Felipe (GII) winner Danzing Candy (#5, 16-1), Tampa Bay Derby (GII) winner Destin (#7, 16-1), Gotham (GIII) winner Shagaf (#18, 17-1) and Lecomte (GIII) winner Mo Tom (#13, 17-1). 

The Future Wager, a Kentucky Derby tradition launched by Churchill Downs in 1999, enabled fans of America’s Greatest Race to wager on contenders for its 2016 running well in advance of the Derby at odds that could be much more attractive than those available on the day of the race. Each Kentucky Derby Future Wager pool permits $2 minimum win bets and $2 exacta wagers, with the latter also available in $1 minimum increments in boxes and other multiple number configurations. 

               The final KDFW pool of 2016 was offered at Churchill Downs and racetracks throughout North America, and was available via Twinspires.com – the official online wagering platform of the Kentucky Derby – and other participating online outlets.

No scratches or wagering refunds are permitted during any Kentucky Derby Future Wager pool. Winning payouts in 2016’s KDFW Pool 4 are based on the odds in place at Sunday’s close of wagering. 

Click here for a complete rundown on final odds and $2 win will-pays for KDFW Pool 4.

For a look at $2 exacta will-pays for KDFW Pool 4, click here.