Triple Crown head-to-head: American Pharoah vs Justify

Apr 30, 2020 by James Scully/TwinSpires.com

In anticipation of the virtual Kentucky Derby: Triple Crown Showdown, we're analyzing several intriguing head-to-head match-ups. This installment of the series pits American Pharoah against Justify.

Following a 37-year Triple Crown drought, American Pharoah and Justify thrilled audiences in a four-year window this decade. The front-running specialists often towered over the competition, and they displayed tractability recording Kentucky Derby wins. Both were trained by Hall of Famer Bob Baffert, and it would be an exciting matchup between modern-day contemporaries.

Baffert knew American Pharoah had the opportunity to be special the first time he saw him train. The young colt had such a long and fluid stride, he could run fast in a seemingly effortless fashion. After breaking slowly and losing his career debut, American Pharoah led all the way to earn his first win in the Del Mar Futurity (G1) by a 4 3/4-length margin.

American Pharoah made only one more start at 2, easily taking the FrontRunner (G1) at Santa Anita (which has been renamed the American Pharoah), and was named champion 2-year-old male despite missing the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) due to a foot injury.

He made it back to the races for the Rebel Stakes (G2) at Oaklawn Park in mid-March, romping by 6 1/4 lengths in the slop after bobbling and losing a shoe at the start. American Pharoah thrashed rivals by an eight-length margin as the 1-10 favorite in the Arkansas Derby (G1) four weeks later.

The only drama in his Triple Crown sweep came in the Kentucky Derby, with American Pharoah winning by a hard-fought length after tracking the pace. The final two legs were hair-raising performances. American Pharoah delivered a rousing wire-to-wire win at Pimlico, scoring by seven lengths in the slop, and nearly brought the rafters down at Belmont Park when completing the elusive treble three weeks later, dominating by 5 1/2 lengths in the 1 1/2-mile Belmont Stakes.

After adding the Haskell Invitational (G1), American Pharoah sustained his lone defeat at age 3 when finishing second in the Travers (G1) at Saratoga. He was perhaps thrown off his game when a crowd of 15,000+ showed up for a Friday morning gallop, simulating a race day environment that made American Pharoah difficult to handle.

The new terminology “Grand Slam” was termed when American Pharoah rebounded stylishly in the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) at Keeneland, increasing his margin throughout as he rolled by 6 1/2 lengths.

Over the course of 112 days in 2018, Justify took the Thoroughbred racing world by storm. The long chestnut won at first asking in mid-February by 9 1/2 lengths, and returned three weeks to crush allowance foes by a 6 1/2-length margin in his 2-turn debut.

Based on the strength of his second performance, Justify was bet down to favoritism in Pool 3 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager. No unraced 2-year-old had captured the Kentucky Derby in 130 years and Justify had yet to face stakes rivals, but future wager bettors opted for talent over experience.

Justify certified himself as the Kentucky Derby favorite with a three-length victory in the Santa Anita Derby (G1), registering the highest Brisnet Speed rating (114) in a qualifying race since the points-based system was introduced in 2008.

At Churchill Downs, he conceded the early lead to another rival before surging to a clear lead on the far turn, cruising home to a 2 1/2-length decision. Justify was all heart at Pimlico, recording a half-length Preakness triumph after dueling most of the way, and completed the Triple Crown sweep with a facile wire-to-wire win in the Belmont Stakes.

The only undefeated Triple Crown winner, Justify retired to stud after the June 9 Belmont Stakes.

Justify is eligible to receive a favorable up-close stalking trip with his speed, but the flashy colt faced only one real challenge in his brief 4 1/2-month career. His lack of experience would be a serious concern in the virtual race. American Pharoah was battle-tested and could devastate the competition with an electric turn of foot. He had more gears than Justify, and I like American Pharoah to prove best among the Baffert trainees.