Tracking BRIS Speed ratings for Kentucky Derby prospects

Feb 01, 2017 by James Scully/Brisnet.com

A big weekend awaits with three Kentucky Derby preps, including the return of early favorite Classic Empire in the Holy Bull (G2) at Gulfstream Park. The unanimous 2-year-old champion is expected to receive three prep races in advance of the Run for the Roses.

The Robert B. Lewis (G3) at Santa Anita and Withers (G3) at Aqueduct also will be offered on February 4.

A total of 22 qualifying races remain in the Road to the Kentucky Derby series, with 13 events already in the books.

Let’s take a look at the top BRIS Speed ratings earned by hopefuls in qualifying races so far (90 or better), with numbers from 2017 preps designated by an asterisk:

Horse		Race (finish position)		BRIS Speed
CLASSIC EMPIRE		BC Juv. (1st)		108
*GORMLEY		Sham (1st)		102
*AMERICAN ANTHEM		Sham (2nd)		102
MO TOWN		Remsen (1st)		101
*EL AREEB		Jerome (1st)		100
MASTERY		Los Al Futurity (1st)		99
NO DOZING		Remsen (2nd)		98
PRACTICAL JOKE		BC Juv. (3rd)		98
GORMLEY		FrontRunner (1st)		97
PRACTICAL JOKE		Champagne (1st)		97
*UNCONTESTED		Smarty Jones (1st)		97
GUNNEVERA		Delta Jackpot (1st)		96
CLASSIC EMPIRE		Breeders’ Futurity (1st)		94
MCCRAKEN		Ky Jockey Club (1st)		93
*GUEST SUITE		Lecomte (1st)		93
LOOKIN AT LEE		BC Juv. (4th)		93
WILD SHOT		Ky Jockey Club (2nd)		92
*PETROV		Smarty Jones (2nd)		91
*UNTRAPPED		Lecomte (2nd)		91
LOOKIN AT LEE		Breeders’ Futurity (2nd)		90

The first thing that jumps out is McCraken’s position on the list. The unbeaten colt was bet down to 9-1 odds in the Pool 2 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager last weekend, the co-second choice among individual interests, but 10 prospects have earned better Speed ratings so far.

However, I place more stock in BRIS Speed ratings earned as a 3-year-olds, with juvenile figures typically holding little weight by the first Saturday in May. And given his stellar form last year, McCraken is eligible to earn better numbers as a sophomore.

We’ll get a better gauge when McCraken makes his seasonal bow in the February 11 Sam F. Davis (G3) at Tampa Bay Downs.

Less than 100 days remain until the Kentucky Derby and I will continue to analyze BRIS Speed ratings from qualifying races.