Top 12 prospects to follow on Road to 2025 Kentucky Derby

Sep 11, 2024 Kellie Reilly/Brisnet.com

Chancer McPatrick (left) and Ferocious fought out the finish in the Hopeful

Chancer McPatrick (left) prevails in the Hopeful (Photo by Coglianese Photos)

The 2024-2025 Road to the Kentucky Derby is set to begin with Saturday’s Iroquois (G3) at Churchill Downs. That means it’s time to highlight the most promising juveniles we’ve seen so far.

The operative phrase is “so far,” since only some have been ready to start over the summer. As the two-year-old racing scene unfolds through the fall, many youngsters will advertise their potential for the Triple Crown trail. Others will blossom when winter turns to spring, making for an ever-changing landscape of Derby contenders.

Here’s my attempt at a top 12 to follow on the Road to the 151st Kentucky Derby on May 3, 2025. Most raced at the prestigious Saratoga meet, but Del Mar, Gulfstream Park, and Ellis Park also featured noteworthy winners.

For a much more detailed analysis of these prospects, visit my companion piece on the TwinSpires.com Edge.

Chancer McPatrick

The unbeaten Hopeful (G1) winner has displayed a terrific closing kick, despite troubled trips at Saratoga. Could he be the one to give trainer Chad Brown his first Kentucky Derby victory?

Chancer McPatrick, a $725,000 two-year-old-in-training purchase, is a grandson of two U.S. classic winners. He’s from the first crop of multiple Grade 1 winner McKinzie, a son of 2007 Derby star Street Sense, and his mother is by 2006 Preakness (G1) champion Bernardini.

Ferocious

A close second as the odds-on favorite in the Hopeful, Ferocious is trained by Gustavo Delgado, who sent out Mage to win the 2023 Kentucky Derby. Ferocious made a mighty impression two starts back in his Saratoga debut victory, but he’s still on the learning curve.

The $1.3 million two-year-old-in-training purchase is by Flatter, a royally-bred son of Hall of Famer A.P. Indy. Ferocious is out of a mare by champion sprinter Midnight Lute.

Gaming

The unbeaten Del Mar Futurity (G1) winner has emerged as Hall of Famer Bob Baffert’s best juvenile at the moment. From the first crop of 2018 champion two-year-old male Game Winner, Gaming hopes to follow in his hoofsteps. He emulated Game Winner at Del Mar, but will Gaming complete his sire’s sweep in the American Pharoah (G1) and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1)?

Gaming is also the grandson of a Breeders’ Cup champion. His mother is by Johannesburg, who famously dominated the 2001 Juvenile in his dirt debut for Irish maestro Aidan O’Brien.

McKinzie Street

McKinzie Street was second-best in the Del Mar Futurity. Yet the Tim Yakteen pupil had won well in his prior start on debut, and he’s eligible to keep performing at a high level.

Another son of McKinzie, McKinzie Street is out of a close relative to Kantharos, an unbeaten juvenile sensation who became a successful sire.

Bullard

The $675,000 son of Gun Runner made a sparkling debut at Del Mar for trainer Michael McCarthy. Rallying from last to win going away by 1 1/4 lengths, Bullard continued with gusto on the gallop-out.

His breeder, Three Chimneys Farm, retains an interest in the colt as co-owners with St. Elias Stable, Talla Racing, and West Point Thoroughbreds.

Rated by Merit

Rated by Merit is 2-for-2 at Gulfstream Park, where he has demolished the opposition in fast time. The Michael Yates trainee earned a gaudy 101 Brisnet Speed rating for his first stakes win in the Dr. Fager division of the Florida Sire S. for state-breds.

A homebred for St. Elias Stable, Rated by Merit is by the lesser-known Unbridled’s Song stallion Battalion Runner, who showed ability in his brief career. Rated by Merit hails from the superb family of Revolutionary, the 2013 Louisiana Derby (G2) winner and Kentucky Derby third-placer.

East Avenue

The Godolphin blueblood stamped himself as one to watch with a wire-to-wire victory on debut at Ellis Park. Trained by Brendan Walsh, the son of Medaglia d’Oro opened up by eight lengths down the stretch.

East Avenue can claim Horse of the Year Cody’s Wish as his “uncle.” Cody’s Wish is a half-brother to East Avenue’s mother, Dance Music. She is by Hall of Famer Ghostzapper, who also factors as the maternal grandfather of Triple Crown champion Justify.

Showcase

The Todd Pletcher trainee extended his record to 2-for-2 in the Saratoga Special (G2), where he had to muscle his way off the fence to get into the clear. Showcase had a much easier time in his Aqueduct debut romp.

By Uncle Mo, the sire of 2016 Kentucky Derby champion Nyquist, Showcase is out of a full sister to Grade 1-winning sprinter Volatile.

Sandman

The $1.2 million Tapit colt is entered in the Iroquois, but whatever he does on Saturday might be a bonus. Sandman has a pedigree geared toward improvement with distance and maturity.

In keeping with that profile, the gray was only fifth in his unveiling at Churchill Downs. Sandman moved forward to win last time out at Saratoga for dual Hall of Famer Mark Casse, who prefers to educate his horses by racing them.

Dapper Moon

The gray was an eye-catching second in his Spa premiere to Incentive Pay, the subsequent third-placer in the Hopeful. Dapper Moon came right back to break his maiden by five lengths.

The Louisiana-bred is by Malibu Moon, the sire of 2013 Derby hero Orb. Dapper Moon’s trainer, Dallas Stewart, has had longshots place in the Kentucky Derby twice.

Uncaged

By Hall of Famer Curlin and out of 2016 Delaware Oaks (G3) victress Dark Nile, Uncaged might have been expected to need a lot more time to make it to the races. Hence it’s an extremely encouraging sign that he was ready to debut at Saratoga, let alone that he won readily for Hall of Famer Pletcher.

Uncaged was sold to Repole Stable for $450,000 as a yearling, but his breeder, WinStar Farm, has stayed in for a share.

Sovereignty

With his closing fourth in the usually informative Travers Day maiden, Sovereignty warrants a mention. The son of leading sire Into Mischief actually passed the top three finishers shortly after the wire, and he can build upon this sneaky debut for Hall of Famer Bill Mott.

Sovereignty is yet another exquisite homebred for Godolphin. He’s out of a Bernardini mare, and the other sires on that half of his pedigree include Empire Maker, Seattle Slew, and Alydar.

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