Three Takeaways from the Robert B. Lewis

Feb 04, 2020 by James Scully/TwinSpires.com

The second of four Kentucky Derby qualifiers at Santa Anita this year, the $100,000 Robert B. Lewis (G3) proved to be a milestone achievement for trainer Bob Baffert as Thousand Words delivered his 3,000^th North American win.

As part of the Road to the KentuckyDerby series, the race offered points on 10-4-2-1 scale to the top four finishers. Point totals will increase for the March 7 San Felipe (G2) (50-20-10-5) and April 4 Santa Anita Derby (G1) (100-40-20-10).

Here are three takeaways from the Lewis:

1 – Thousand Words is not flashy, but the classy colt has supporters excited for the Kentucky Derby. The unbeaten 3-year-old has shown grit and determination winning all three starts, prevailing by three-quarters of a length in the 1 1/16-mile Lewis, and he possesses the versatility to race up close or from off the pace.

He looks like the type who will keep improving with experience and over longer distances. Thousand Words still has to prove it, but his potential upside is enormous.

2 – Baffert highlighted his long stride and grinding run style, and the five-time Derby winner is bullish on the colt’s future.

“Prat says he is getting better, he was a sort of immature colt,” the Hall of Fame trainer said. “He grinds and you gotta really work at him. Being stuck down inside, he got the worst of it. Usually a young horse like that, they don’t run that well and they don’t respond.

“He’s got that big long stride and the further the better with him. You could tell about the last 50 yards, he was really getting going. He came back he wasn’t even tired so that is a good sign. He is progressing with every race and to win three in a row like that, it is pretty impressive.”

A $1 million yearling purchase for Albaugh Racing Stables and Spendthrift Farm, Thousand Words is by Pioneerof the Nile, the 2009 Kentucky Derby runner-up and sire of 2015 Triple Crown winner American Pharoah. Baffert trained both horses, as well as 2018 Triple Crown winner Justify, and has said previously that Thousand Word’s stride reminds him of Arrogate, who came along too late for the 2016 Triple Crown but earned champion 3-year-old honors and more than $17 million during an 11-race career.

3 – His Brisnet Speed ratings can increase. Considering Thousand Words received only a 92 figure, his numbers must keep rising in future races to reach his potential.

I’m not worried about the Lewis Speed rating. It dropped three points from his win in the Dec. 7 Los Alamitos Futurity (G2), but does not impact his Kentucky Derby chances at this date. Previous Derby winners have earned lower numbers in their three-year-old bow, and Thousand Words appears to be at an early stage of his trajectory. I expect him to run much faster this spring.

His Brisnet Late Pace numbers (97 in Lewis) are also eligible to jump forward into the triple-digit range as Thousand Words continues to develop.