Three Takeaways from 2022 Santa Anita Derby

Apr 13, 2022 James Scully/TwinSpires.com

The Santa Anita Derby (G1) has been one of the most
productive Kentucky Derby preps in recent decades, and a pair of talented
three-year-olds will be headed to Churchill Downs after finishing 1-2 in the 170-point
major qualifier.

Unraced until March 5, Taiba
jumped straight from a six-furlong maiden win to the 1 1/8-mile Santa Anita Derby (G1), and the budding star performed like a seasoned veteran, settling a
couple of lengths back in third as Forbidden
Kingdom and Messier kept each
other company on the front end.

The chestnut Gun Runner colt advanced three-wide on the far
turn and after even-money favorite Forbidden Kingdom threw in the towel, Taiba
took aim upon stablemate Messier in upper stretch.

Messier, who was exiting a 15-length win in the Feb. 6
Robert B. Lewis (G3), led by a length with a furlong remaining and dug in
gamely when confronted, but the classy colt could not withstand the challenge.

Taiba surged to win going away by 2 1/4 lengths, netting a 111
Brisnet Speed rating for the sublime performance. His Pace ratings (100 E1, 109
E2, and 102 Late Pace) were terrific, as well.

It’s been a remarkable ascension – one seldom sees a horse accomplish what Taiba has done so far.

Taiba doesn’t project as the Kentucky Derby pacesetter, but
he possesses the positional speed to make his own trip close to the pace. Two-time
Kentucky Derby-winning jockey Mike Smith figures to be hustling from the
starting gate to avoid getting caught up in traffic with the inexperienced
runner.

Big Brown (2008) and Justify (2018) were able to win the
Kentucky Derby in just their fourth start, the latter breaking a 100+ year drought
as an unraced two-year-old, and both were tractable frontrunning types like
Taiba. Two-time Horse of the Year Curlin, who raced from off the pace when
making his fourth career start in the 2007 Derby, enjoyed a less-than-favorable
trip in traffic and wound up third.

Taiba not only has one fewer start, those counterparts also owned
multiple two-turn attempts in advance of the first Saturday in May.

The Zedan Racing Stables colorbearer will try to become the
first horse to win the Kentucky Derby in third start since Leonatus in 1883.
The $1.7 million yearling has the talent – he couldn’t be more promising – but
navigating the Kentucky Derby paddock, post parade, and 1 1/4-mile distance is
an imposing challenge given the lack of foundation.

Taiba is facing quite the tall task, and being favorably
positioned in the opening stages appears instrumental for his win chances.

A two-time graded winner, Messier turned in the fastest
performance in any Kentucky Derby prep race prior to April 9, earning a 104
Brisnet Speed rating for his wire-to-wire win in the Lewis. The Empire Maker
colt blitzed six furlongs in 1:11 2/5 in a workout prior to the Santa Anita
Derby, but he couldn’t beat Forbidden Kingdom to the early lead.

The Kentucky Derby lost some projected pace after the final
round of qualifiers, as Forbidden Kingdom and Classic Causeway have been
removed from consideration, and Messier will likely train fast in his pre-Derby
workouts for Tim Yakteen.

Don’t be surprised to see Messier leading the way early with
John Velazquez in the Kentucky Derby.