Three takeaways from 2022 Rebel Stakes

Mar 02, 2022 James Scully/TwinSpires.com

The third of four Kentucky Derby qualifiers at Oaklawn Park,
Saturday’s $1 million Rebel S. (G2) awarded points on a 50-20-10-5 scale to the
top four finishers. The 1 1/16-mile race featured a massive upset.

Un Ojo,
appropriately named after losing his left eye as a yearling, enjoying a perfect
stalking trip from just off the pace, saving ground throughout, and rallied up
the inside to edge Ethereal Road by a half-length in deep stretch. The New
York-bred gelding notched his first stakes victory, prevailing as the longest shot in the 11-horse field at 75-1.

He had been more of a one-run closer in his first six
starts, and the dark bay son of Laoban has come a long way since finishing a
well-beaten fourth at double-digit odds in a Delta Downs stakes in
mid-November.

Un Ojo was exiting a pair of runner-up finishes in Aqueduct
stakes for Anthony Dutrow, including a non-threatening second to Early Voting in the Feb. 5 Withers S. (G3). In the latter, he was nearly 20 lengths back in
last after the opening half-mile.

Transferred back to trainer Ricky Courville for the Rebel, Un
Ojo raced more prominently during the opening stages with new jockey Ramon
Vazquez, and the sophomore stepped forward with a career-best showing.

Ethereal Road
needed four starts to break his maiden, graduating by a four-length
margin on Jan. 29, and he was overlooked at 15-1 in his first start
against winners on Saturday. The D. Wayne Lukas-trained Quality Road colt rallied
boldly on the far turn to take a short lead into the stretch, but appeared to lose
focus while straightening for home.

Despite racing greenly, Ethereal Road still had every chance
to win, but he tired late and surrendered the lead to Uno Ojo. The runner-up netted
his second consecutive Brisnet Late Pace rating (107), and Ethereal Road is
still figuring things out – his best races are in front of him.

After being all out to win the Jan. 29 Southwest S. (G3), Newgrange came up empty after tracking
a moderate pace in the Rebel, weakening to fifth as the odds-on favorite. The Violence
colt impressively captured his first two starts when dictating terms on the
front end, but Newgrange doesn’t appear to want any part of two-turn distances
at this point in his career.

Slow races fail to inspire confidence for the Kentucky
Derby, and Un Ojo received only a 92 Brisnet Speed rating. That’s the lowest
figure for a winner of a Road to the Kentucky Derby series qualifier this year, well below par from previous runnings, and Rebel contestants will
have to run faster to make a serious impact this spring.