Three takeaways from 2022 Blue Grass

Apr 13, 2022 James Scully/TwinSpires.com

Elevated to Grade 1 status in 2022, the $1 million Blue
Grass has not produced a Kentucky Derby winner since Street Sense in 2007, but
the 170-point major qualifier looks like a strong prep for this year’s Run for the Roses.

Once he got room to run, Zandon made it look easy with a powerful turn of foot, closing from
last to first in the final half-mile to win the 1 1/8-mile Blue Grass.

The lanky colt looks the part for the Kentucky Derby, equipped
with a lengthy stride that is becoming more formidable with racing experience, and
the first leg of the Triple Crown is eligible to set up well for the late
runner.

Despite appearances in the stretch, the Blue Grass didn’t
come easy for Zandon, who was caught up in traffic from the break. When the
Chad Brown-trained son of Upstart started to advance entering the far turn, he
ran into a wall of traffic and got shuffled back to last.

The dark bay colt began to fly while straightening for home,
angling his way between rivals as he gobbled up ground, and he quickly caught
9-5 favorite Smile Happy, who had
rallied to take a clear lead in midstretch.

Zandon blew past the well-respected rival to win going away by
2 1/2 lengths, and he appears to be on an upward trajectory. A debut maiden
winner last October, Zandon finished a nose second to Mo Donegal in December’s Remsen
(G2) at Aqueduct next time out.

He missed the break and experienced a wide trip when coming
back in the Feb. 19 Risen Star (G2) at Fair Grounds, checking in third behind
Epicenter and Smile Happy, and Zandon improved significantly upon that performance
in the Blue Grass.

Despite a moderate pace, Zandon earned a commendable 103
Brisnet Speed rating. His 114 Late Pace number came as no surprise, and the
up-and-coming sophomore is peaking at the right time of year.

Zandon had no difficulty getting out of the gate in the
Remsen last fall, but he’s broken slowly in both outings this year.

And while he’s eligible to pass a lot of horses in the
Kentucky Derby, Zandon doesn’t have to be rating at the back of the field
during the opening stages. That run style isn’t optimal for the 1 1/4-mile Kentucky
Derby, which hasn’t been won by a one-run closer since Orb in 2013.

The break will be important in the Kentucky Derby.

Flavien Prat, who picked up the mount in the Blue Grass and
won the 2019 Kentucky Derby via disqualification aboard Country House, will
look for a better start in the Kentucky Derby, establishing more favorable early
positioning toward midpack before rallying into the frame.

A smashing 3 1/4-length winner of the Kentucky Jockey Club
(G2) at Churchill Downs in late November, Smile Happy entered his
three-year-old season unbeaten and as the presumptive early Kentucky Derby favorite.

He certainly hasn’t been disgraced in a pair of appearances,
recording non-threatening seconds in the Risen Star and Blue Grass, but Smile
Happy has not gone on at age three like many expected.

Kenny McPeek wasn’t disappointed after the Blue Grass,
suggesting Smile Happy’s best race will come in the Kentucky Derby, and the
colt’s affinity for Churchill Downs is an advantage.

It’s been more than 20 years since a horse won the Kentucky
Derby following consecutive runner-up efforts – Hall of Famer Silver Charm and Real
Quiet did so in back-to-back years (1997-98).