Takeaways from 2022 Kentucky Derby

May 10, 2022 James Scully/TwinSpires.com

Saturday’s 148th running of the $3 million Kentucky Derby
(G1) proved to be a stunner. Let’s examine three takeaways.

Overlooked as the 80-1 longest shot among 20 runners, Rich Strike closed quickly into contention up the rail entering the stretch, tipping out only briefly to pass a
tiring rival in midstretch, and the mud-covered chestnut carried his momentum
to wire, overhauling Epicenter in the final strides.

It was an eye-catching turn of foot, and Kentucky Derby winners seldom prevail late like Rich Strike, who was claimed for $30,000 from
his second career start by owner Rick Dawson’s RED TR-Racing and trainer Eric
Reed. Rich Strike convincingly won the maiden claimer at Churchill Downs last
fall, his only victory from seven career starts prior to the Kentucky Derby.

Nobody saw it coming.

Rich Strike, who didn’t draw into the field from the
also-eligible list until Friday morning, capitalized upon a blistering early
pace (:21.78 and :45.36), rating nearly 20 lengths behind in 18th during the
opening stages before launching his rally leaving the backstretch, and jockey Sonny
Leon keenly held his inside position after rushing into a wall of traffic
midway on the final turn, waiting for a path to open.

As rivals drifted out exiting the turn, opening the necessary seam, Rich Strike came
charging powerfully into the stretch drive, dramatically getting up by
three-quarters of a length on the wire, and he received a 102 Brisnet Speed
rating for his initial stakes win.

From the first crop of Keen Ice, who is best known for
upsetting American Pharoah in the 2015 Travers (G1), Kentucky-bred Rich Strike
counts two-time Horse of the Year Curlin as his paternal grandfather and Smart
Strike as his paternal great-grandfather. He’s out of Canadian champion Gold
Strike, a daughter of Smart Strike, who is by the legendary Mr. Prospector, and
Rich Strike is the 10th Kentucky Derby winner bred by historic Calumet Farm.

Rich Strike entered the Kentucky Derby off a belated third
in the April 2 Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) at Turfway Park, finishing behind fellow Derby
participants Tiz the Bomb and Tawny Port.

Louisiana Derby (G2) winner Epicenter surged to a clear lead leaving the far turn, and
he momentarily appeared home-free after turning back Zandon in midstretch, but the 4-1 favorite could not sustain it.

Hall of Famer Steve Asmussen, Thoroughbred racing’s all-time
leader by wins, is now 0-for-24 in the Kentucky Derby, including three seconds.

“I can’t believe it after Epicenter’s effort,” Asmussen
said. “And, the scenario in which I went 0-for-24, you couldn’t make up. I got
beat by the horse that just got in.”

The hot pace eventually caught up to Epicenter, who used his
natural speed to establish a forward position, racing within striking range along
the backstretch, and the classy colt tried to fight back when challenged late, giving way grudgingly. It was brutal loss.

Zandon, who loomed a menacing threat while advancing into
contention off the far turn, lacked the necessary finishing kick but still performed
respectably for third.

Rich Strike will bypass the two-week turnaround for the Preakness
(G1), waiting instead for the Belmont S. (G1) on June 11.

Epicenter looks like a prohibitive favorite at Pimlico.
Trained by two-time Preakness winner Steve Asmussen, Epicenter has been
installed as the 6-5 morning line choice, and he’s well-drawn in post 8 with his
tactical speed. The stalker will take some beating with Joel Rosario.

Three rivals merit serious respect. Early Voting, a neck second to Mo Donegal in the Wood Memorial
(G2), is the one to catch. Jose Ortiz departs Grade 2 winner Simplification, a rallying fourth in the Kentucky Derby, in favor of Early Voting, who registered the top last-out
Brisnet Speed rating (111) in the field.

Simplification was arguably too far back in the Kentucky
Derby, 18th after the opening three-quarters of mile, and finished well in the
final furlongs. He could show more with a better trip from the rail in the
Preakness.

Secret Oath will
enter on the upswing for six-time Preakness winner D. Wayne Lukas, edging away
to a two-length decision in the Kentucky Oaks (G1). Armed with a strong turn of
foot, the filly will be rallying from just off the pace with Luis Saez.