Study Guide: 2025 Blue Grass Stakes

Apr 02, 2025 J. Keeler Johnson/TwinSpires.com

Chancer McPatrick wins the Champagne (G1) at Aqueduct. (Photo by Coglianese Photos)

Keeneland's Friday card has been pushed to Monday and Saturday's racing will take place on Tuesday due to the weekends forecast of severe weather. 

The $1.25 million Blue Grass (G1) at Keeneland has drawn a strong field for its 2025 edition. All seven entrants in the 1 1/8-mile race have previously earned Road to the Kentucky Derby qualification points.

Let’s analyze the field in horse-by-horse fashion:

River Thames

River Thames wins at Gulfstream Park. (Photo by Coglianese Photo)

Start(s): 3
Wins: 2
Place: 1
Show: 0

Owner: WinStar Farm, CHC, Pantofel Stable, and Wachtel Stable
Breeder: CTR Stables
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.

Top Speed Rating: (99) when finishing second in the Fountain of Youth (G2) at Gulfstream Park.
Total Earnings: $164,400

Sire: Maclean’s Music
Dam: Proportionality
Color: Bay

River Thames won his first two starts before finishing second by a neck in the Fountain of Youth (G2), a race won by next-out Florida Derby (G1) runner-up Sovereignty. That narrow defeat against quality competition stamps River Thames as a win contender in the Blue Grass.

Render Judgment

Render Judgment wins at Churchill Downs. (Photo by Coady Media)

Start(s): 6
Wins: 1
Place: 2
Show: 1

Owner: Baccari Racing Stable, Dream Walkin Farms, MJM Racing, and Rocket Ship Racing
Breeder: Green Lantern Stables
Trainer: Kenny McPeek
Jockey: Sheldon Russell

Top Speed Rating: (96) when finishing second in the Virginia Derby at Colonial Downs.
Total Earnings: $214,110

Sire: Blame
Dam: Barbara Gordon
Color: Bay

Render Judgment exits a career-best performance in the Virginia Derby, in which he tracked the pace before staying on to finish second against a runaway winner. Render Judgment has cracked the top five in a trio of Road to the Kentucky Derby qualifiers and may do so again in the Blue Grass.

Burnham Square

Burnham Square wins the Holy Bull at Gulfstream Park. (Photo by Coglianese Photo)

Start(s): 5
Wins: 2
Place: 1
Show: 1

Owner: Whitham Thoroughbreds
Breeder: Whitham Thoroughbreds
Trainer: Ian Wilkes
Jockey: Brian Hernandez Jr.

Top Speed Rating: (101) when winning the Holy Bull (G3) at Gulfstream Park.
Total Earnings: $222,130

Sire: Liam’s Map
Dam: Linda
Color: Bay

Burnham Square was a flashy winner of the Holy Bull (G3) over Tappan Street, who came back to win the Florida Derby. But Burnham Square subsequently faltered when finishing fourth in the Fountain of Youth, 2 3/4 lengths behind River Thames. He’ll need a rebound to turn the tables.

Owen Almighty

Owen wins the Tampa Bay Derby at Tampa Bay Downs.

Start(s): 6
Wins: 3
Place: 2
Show: 0

Owner: Flying Dutchmen
Breeder: Mark Stanley
Trainer: Brian Lynch
Jockey: Jose Ortiz

Top Speed Rating: (97) when finishing second in the Sam F. Davis S. at Tampa Bay Downs.
Total Earnings: $484,310

Sire: Speightstown
Dam: Tempers Rising
Color: Bay

Owen Almighty conquered multiple Grade 1 winner Chancer McPatrick and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) third-place finisher Hill Road when dominating the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) by 3 1/2 lengths. But Owen Almighty benefited from setting a modest pace in the Tampa Bay Derby, and he’s likely to face serious pace pressure from East Avenue in the Blue Grass, complicating his path to victory.

East Avenue

East Avenue dominated the Breeders' Futurity (Photo by Coady Media)

Start(s): 4
Wins: 2
Place: 0
Show: 0

Owner: Godolphin
Breeder: Godolphin
Trainer: Brendan Walsh
Jockey: Luan Machado

Top Speed Rating: (95) when winning the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) at Keeneland.
Total Earnings: $410,645

Sire: Medaglia d’Oro
Dam: Dance Music
Color: Bay

East Avenue was an eye-catching winner of the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) at Keeneland last fall, dominating by 5 1/4 lengths. But he benefited from saving ground over a track biased in favor of inside runners. East Avenue has disappointed in two subsequent starts, but a series of strong workouts leading up to the Blue Grass suggest he’s eligible to rebound while returning to Keeneland and adding blinkers.

East Avenue was much the best and picks up 10 #KentuckyDerby points in the G1 Breeders' Futurity! 🏆🌹 @Tyler_Gaff @brenpwalsh @godolphin

🎥#TwinSpiresReplay pic.twitter.com/p53htmMtbs

— TwinSpires Racing 🏇 (@TwinSpires) October 5, 2024

Chancer McPatrick

Chancer McPatrick wins the Champagne (G1) at Aqueduct. (Photo by Coglianese Photos)

Start(s): 5
Wins: 3
Place: 1
Show: 0

Owner: Flanagan Racing
Breeder: Rigney Racing
Trainer: Chad Brown
Jockey: Flavien Prat

Top Speed Rating: (99) when winning the Hopeful (G1) at Saratoga.
Total Earnings: $605,000

Sire: McKinzie
Dam: Bernadreamy
Color: Bay

Chancer McPatrick showed strong form as a juvenile, launching big rallies to win the Hopeful (G1) and Champagne (G1). He started 2025 with a gallant runner-up finish to Owen Almighty in the Tampa Bay Derby and is eligible to step forward in his second start of the year for trainer Chad Brown, whose Kentucky Derby contenders often improve in their final prep for the Derby.

Admiral Dennis

Admiral Dennis wins at Churchill Downs. (Photo by Coady Media)

Start(s): 5
Wins: 2
Place: 0
Show: 1

Owner: Albaugh Family Stables
Breeder: WinStar Farm
Trainer: Brad Cox
Jockey: Luis Saez

Top Speed Rating: (91) when winning a Churchill Downs maiden special weight.
Total Earnings: $151,050

Sire: Constitution
Dam: Gulf Coast
Color: Chestnut

Last time out, Admiral Dennis dropped a couple of dozen lengths off the pace in the Rebel (G2) before closing belatedly to finish sixth by seven lengths. He’ll need to show more early speed in the Blue Grass to avoid leaving himself with too much to do down the Keeneland homestretch.