Study Guide: 2024 Rebel Stakes
Feb 20, 2024
Over the last 20 years, the $1.25 million Rebel (G2) has been won by two of the best Kentucky Derby (G1) winners in recent memory: the once-beaten fan favorite Smarty Jones (2004) and Triple Crown winner American Pharoah (2015).
Only time will tell if Saturday’s renewal of the Rebel will produce a winner of equal caliber, but the 1 1/16-mile Road to the Kentucky Derby qualifier has drawn a large field of 13 horses, all vying for 105 Kentucky Derby (G1) qualification points split 50-25-15-10-5 among the top five finishers. With so many horses in the entries, there are bound to be some future graded stakes stars in the field.
Let’s review the entrants in horse-by-horse fashion:
Carbone
Carbone (Photo by Coady Photography)
Start(s): 3
Wins: 2
Place: 0
Show: 0
Owner: L. William Heiligbrodt, Corinne Heiligbrodt, and Flurry Racing Stables
Breeder: William and Corinne Heiligbrodt
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Jockey: Isaac Castillo
Top Speed Rating: (93) when dominating his debut at Churchill Downs.
Total Earnings: $173,000
Sire: Mitole
Dam: Treasure in Heaven
Color: Bay
Faltered when joining the Road to the Kentucky Derby in Oaklawn’s Southwest (G3), fading from a pace-pressing position to finish seventh. But that race took place over a muddy track, and Carbone had previously wired his first two starts on fast footing by decisive margins. He’s eligible to rebound over a dry track this Saturday.
Northern Flame
Northern Flame (Photo by Coady Photography)
Start(s): 7
Wins: 2
Place: 0
Show: 1
Owner: Jack Oxley, Harold Lerner, AWC Stables, and Magdalena Racing
Breeder: Debby M. Oxley
Trainer: Kenny McPeek
Jockey: Julien Leparoux
Top Speed Rating: (90) when finishing fourth in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) at Keeneland.
Total Earnings: $206,075
Sire: Flameaway
Dam: Darling’s Darling
Color: Bay
Northern Flame failed to seriously challenge in his first two Road to the Kentucky Derby forays, finishing fourth in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) and fifth in the Street Sense (G3) last year. But he bounced back to peak form with a gate-to-wire win in a $100,000 allowance optional claimer at Oaklawn last month, so don’t count this experienced colt out of contention.
Common Defense
Common Defense (Photo by Coady Photography)
Start(s): 3
Wins: 1
Place: 1
Show: 0
Owner: D. A. Bernsen, T. Holmes, M. Holmes, and Norevale Farm
Breeder: Tony Holmes, Norevale Farm, and Union Dale
Trainer: Kenny McPeek
Jockey: Brian Hernandez Jr.
Top Speed Rating: (80) when breaking his maiden at Oaklawn Park.
Total Earnings: $119,200
Sire: Karakontie
Dam: Allusion
Color: Dark bay/brown
Oaklawn maiden winner Common Defense finished a distant fifth when stepping in up in class for the Southwest. He’ll need to improve upon his career-best 80 Brisnet Speed rating to challenge in the Rebel.
Tejon Pass
Start(s): 5
Wins: 1
Place: 1
Show: 1
Owner: Williamson Racing
Breeder: Williamson Racing
Trainer: Peter Miller
Jockey: Chris Landeros
Top Speed Rating: (87) when finishing second in the Renaissance S. at Oaklawn Park.
Total Earnings: $83,770
Sire: Justify
Dam: Foxysox
Color: Chestnut
Tejon Pass has placed in multiple stakes sprinting, but finished fifth when making his route debut in a $100,000 allowance optional claimer at Oaklawn last month. There’s a chance Tejon Pass is better sprinting than running long.
Magic Grant
Start(s): 4
Wins: 1
Place: 0
Show: 1
Owner: Willis Horton Racing
Breeder: Hill N Dale Equine Holdings
Trainer: Eddie Milligan Jr.
Jockey: Harry Hernandez
Top Speed Rating: (80) when finishing third in the Remington Springboard Mile S. at Remington Park.
Total Earnings: $98,085
Sire: Good Magic
Dam: Holiday Bertie
Color: Bay
Magic Grant joined the Road to the Kentucky Derby with a third-place finish in the Remington Springboard Mile S., but he received a favorable pace setup in a race that wasn’t especially fast on paper. He subsequently finished 10th in the Southwest and needs a step forward to record a stronger finish this Saturday.
Dimatic
Start(s): 3
Wins: 1
Place: 0
Show: 1
Owner: Winchell Thoroughbreds
Breeder: Winchell Thoroughbreds
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione
Top Speed Rating: (85) when breaking his maiden at Oaklawn Park.
Total Earnings: $76,328
Sire: Gun Runner
Dam: Time to Tap
Color: Chestnut
Dimatic lost his first two starts, but broke through over a sloppy track at Oaklawn earlier this month, winning a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight by three lengths. He’s progressing in the right direction for four-time Rebel-winning trainer Steve Asmussen and has a shot to finish in the top five.
Timberlake
Timberlake winning the Champagne (G1) at Aqueduct (Photo by Coglianese Photos/Joe Labozzetta)
Start(s): 5
Wins: 2
Place: 1
Show: 0
Owner: WinStar Farm
Breeder: St. Elias Stables
Trainer: Brad Cox
Jockey: Cristian Torres
Top Speed Rating: (103) when finishing fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1).
Total Earnings: $475,600
Sire: Into Mischief
Dam: Pin Up
Color: Bay
By far the most accomplished Rebel entrant is Timberlake, who finished first in the Champagne (G1), second in the Hopeful (G1), and fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) during a productive two-year-old campaign. He owns the two highest Brisnet Speed ratings in the Rebel field, but hasn’t run since November and may need to get a race under his belt before returning to peak form.
Next Level
Start(s): 7
Wins: 1
Place: 2
Show: 1
Owner: Don’t Tell My Wife Stables
Breeder: White Fox Farm
Trainer: Keith Desormeaux
Jockey: Jose Riquelme
Top Speed Rating: (89) when finishing third in the Del Mar Futurity (G1) at Del Mar.
Total Earnings: $115,100
Sire: Vino Rosso
Dam: Devious d’Oro
Color: Bay
Next Level ran third in the Del Mar Futurity (G1) last summer, but in three starts this year his highest Brisnet Speed rating is a 79. The son of champion and Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Vino Rosso, is bred to improve with maturity but does need a step forward to challenge against Saturday’s caliber of competition.
Lagynos
Lagynos at Churchill Downs (Photo by Coady Photography)
Start(s): 4
Wins: 2
Place: 0
Show: 1
Owner: HRH Prince Sultan Bin Mishal Al Saud
Breeder: Robert Spiegel
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Jockey: Keith Asmussen
Top Speed Rating: (90) when finishing third in a Churchill Downs allowance optional claimer.
Total Earnings: $183,160
Sire: Kantharos
Dam: Steamy
Color: Chestnut
Lagynos set the pace in the Jan. 1 Smarty Jones S. at Oaklawn before fading to finish sixth in that 1 1/16-mile Road to the Kentucky Derby qualifier. He’d previously won two of three starts against easier competition, including a 1 1/16-mile allowance at Churchill Downs. Lagynos has talent, but unless he moves forward off the Smarty Jones, a top-five finish may be the ceiling for his potential on Saturday.
Mena
Start(s): 5
Wins: 2
Place: 1
Show: 0
Owner: George A. Sharp
Breeder: Shortleaf Stable
Trainer: Steve Hobby
Jockey: Francisco Arrieta
Top Speed Rating: (86) when finishing second in an Oaklawn Park allowance optional claimer.
Total Earnings: $101,958
Sire: Hard Spun
Dam: Pangburn
Color: Dark bay/brown
Mena put up a good fight against Northern Flame in a $100,000 allowance optional claimer at Oaklawn last month, closing from midfield to finish second by a neck. He hasn’t finished out of the exacta in three starts running long on dirt and has at least an outside chance to factor in the Rebel.
Just Steel
Just Steel (Photo by Coglianese Photography / Credit to Susie Raisher)
Start(s): 9
Wins: 2
Place: 3
Show: 1
Owner: BC Stables
Breeder: Summerhill Farm
Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas
Jockey: Ramon Vazquez
Top Speed Rating: (97) when breaking his maiden at Saratoga.
Total Earnings: $430,795
Sire: Justify
Dam: Irish Lights
Color: Bay
Runner-up in the Smarty Jones and Southwest on the Road to the Kentucky Derby at Oaklawn, Just Steel ran deceptively well in the Southwest. On a day when the track was muddy and favorable to horses running inside, Just Steel raced wide throughout, but never gave up and was beaten only by the ground-saving winner Mystik Dan. Over a (presumably) fair track in the Rebel, Just Steel has upset potential.
Woodcourt
Start(s): 9
Wins: 4
Place: 0
Show: 1
Owner: Contreras Stable
Breeder: Michelle Lovell
Trainer: Cipriano Contreras
Jockey: Emmanuel Esquivel
Top Speed Rating: (83) when winning a Turfway Park allowance optional claimer.
Total Earnings: $287,011
Sire: Ransom the Moon
Dam: Warrioress
Color: Bay
An inside rally in a $100,000 allowance optional claimer at Oaklawn last month carried Woodcourt to victory by a nose over Next Level. A winner on dirt, turf, and synthetic, Woodcourt has shown talent and versatility in a variety of races, but his career-best 83 Brisnet Speed rating looks a little light against Saturday’s field.
Time for Truth
Start(s): 2
Wins: 1
Place: 1
Show: 0
Owner: Harry T. Rosenblum and Cheyenne Stable
Breeder: Dominique Damico
Trainer: Ron Moquett
Jockey: Rafael Bejarano
Top Speed Rating: (96) when winning his debut at Oaklawn Park.
Total Earnings: $98,250
Sire: Omaha Beach
Dam: Shape Shifter
Color: Bay
Time for Truth wired his debut sprinting six furlongs at Oaklawn, earning a flashy 96 Brisnet Speed rating. But he regressed when tackling a muddy track in Oaklawn’s six-furlong Ozark S., weakening from a pacesetting position to finish second by 2 1/2 lengths. Perhaps stretching out over 1 1/16 miles will allow Time for Truth to set or press an easier pace and carry his speed farther.
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