Study Guide: 2024 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile
Oct 30, 2024
East Avenue wins the Breeders' Futurity (G1) at Keeneland (Photo by Coady Media / Credit to Renee Torbit)
In all likelihood, the champion two-year-old male of 2024 will be crowned in Friday’s $2 million Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) at Del Mar.
The 41st edition of the 1 1/16-mile race figures to establish the early favorite for the 2025 Kentucky Derby (G1) as well. The Juvenile is a Road to the Kentucky Derby qualifier worth 30-15-9-6-3 points to the top five finishers, and it's shaping up as a great betting race.
A total of 10 horses have entered the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, including four Grade 1 winners. Let’s take a horse-by-horse tour through the entries:
East Avenue
East Avenue wins at Ellis Park (Photo by Coady Media)
Start(s): 2
Wins: 2
Place: 0
Show: 0
Owner: Godolphin
Breeder: Godolphin
Trainer: Brendan Walsh
Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione
Top Speed Rating: (95) when winning the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) at Keeneland.
Total Earnings: $390,645
Sire: Medaglia d’Oro
Dam: Dance Music
Color: Bay
East Avenue hasn’t been challenged in two starts, most notably wiring the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) by 5 1/4 lengths. But that triumph came with the benefit of an inside-biased track, and East Avenue may face a tougher setup trying to wire this speed-packed Breeders’ Cup Juvenile field from the innermost post position.
Getaway Car
Getaway Car winning the Best Pal (G3) at Del Mar (Photo by Benoit Photo)
Start(s): 4
Wins: 2
Place: 1
Show: 0
Owner: SF Racing, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables, Stonestreet Stables, Dianne Bashor, Determined Stables, Robert E. Masterson, Tom J. Ryan, Waves Edge Capital, and Catherine Donovan
Breeder: Blue Heaven Farm and Curlin Syndicate
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: Juan Hernandez
Top Speed Rating: (98) when finishing second in the American Pharoah (G1) at Santa Anita.
Total Earnings: $213,000
Sire: Curlin
Dam: Surrender Now
Color: Dark bay/brown
Best Pal (G3) winner Getaway Car has speed and figures to use it from post 2, but he’s finished behind Breeders’ Cup Juvenile rivals Citizen Bull and Gaming in Grade 1 races and may find Friday’s caliber of competition a little too deep.
Hill Road
Start(s): 2
Wins: 1
Place: 0
Show: 0
Owner: Amo Racing USA
Breeder: Lynch Bages and Camas Park Stud
Trainer: Adrian Murray
Jockey: Umberto Rispoli
Top Speed Rating: N/A
Total Earnings: $11,606
Sire: Quality Road
Dam: Exotic Notion
Color: Bay
Irish raider Hill Road is switching from turf to dirt off a seventh-place finish in the Vincent O’Brien National (G1). His pedigree offers potential for success on dirt, but Hill Road’s only victory came in a modest maiden race, and conquering a deep field of proven dirt runners in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile could prove difficult.
Ferocious
Ferocious wins at Saratoga (Photo by Coglianese Photos)
Start(s): 3
Wins: 1
Place: 2
Show: 0
Owner: JR Ranch, Marquee Bloodstock, High Step Racing, and OGMA Investments
Breeder: Gentry Stable
Trainer: Gustavo Delgado
Jockey: Javier Castellano
Top Speed Rating: (99) when winning his debut at Saratoga.
Total Earnings: $227,500
Sire: Flatter
Dam: Napier
Color: Dark bay/brown
Like East Avenue, Ferocious benefited from the inside bias when finishing second in the Breeders’ Futurity. He’d previously taken runner-up honors in the Hopeful (G1), so we know Ferocious can hold his own against Grade 1 competition. But he needs a step forward to graduate from runner-up to winner.
Jonathan’s Way
Jonathan's Way (Photo by Coglianese Photos)
Start(s): 2
Wins: 2
Place: 0
Show: 0
Owner: Rigney Racing
Breeder: Susan L. Anderson Racing
Trainer: Philip Bauer
Jockey: Joel Rosario
Top Speed Rating: (93) when winning the Iroquois (G3) at Churchill Downs.
Total Earnings: $186,130
Sire: Vekoma
Dam: Female Drama
Color: Dark bay/brown
Jonathan’s Way has yet to face Grade 1 competition, but he’s also yet to be challenged. His 2-for-2 record includes a decisive gate-to-wire win in the Iroquois (G3). Jonathan’s Way has shown versatility when it comes to running style and may work out a perfect trip under jockey Joel Rosario, who won the Juvenile six years ago aboard champion Game Winner.
Citizen Bull
Citizen Bull wins at Del Mar (Photo by Benoit Photo)
Start(s): 3
Wins: 2
Place: 0
Show: 1
Owner: SF Racing, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables, Stonestreet Stables, Dianne Bashor, Determined Stables, Robert E. Masterson, Tom J. Ryan, Waves Edge Capital, and Catherine Donovan
Breeder: Robert Low and Lawana Low
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: Martin Garcia
Top Speed Rating: (100) when winning the American Pharoah (G1) at Santa Anita.
Total Earnings: $261,000
Sire: Into Mischief
Dam: No Joke
Color: Bay
The only Breeders’ Cup Juvenile entrant with a triple-digit Brisnet Speed rating under his belt is Citizen Bull, who earned a 100 when wiring the American Pharoah (G1) by two lengths. A maiden winner at Del Mar, Citizen Bull has made steady progress for five-time Juvenile-winning trainer Bob Baffert and enters off a sharp series of workouts. He has every chance to visit the winner’s circle on Friday.
Kentucky Derby Pedigree Profile: Citizen Bull 📝 @J_Keelerman @KentuckyDerby https://t.co/gxZoZVGkUv
— TwinSpires Racing 🏇 (@TwinSpires) October 11, 2024
Gaming
Gaming winning the Del Mar Futurity (G1) at Del Mar (Photo by Benoit Photo)
Start(s): 2
Wins: 2
Place: 0
Show: 0
Owner: Michael E. Pegram, Karl Watson, and Paul Weitman
Breeder: Mt Brilliant Farm and Ranch
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.
Top Speed Rating: (99) when winning the Del Mar Futurity (G1) at Del Mar.
Total Earnings: $225,000
Sire: Game Winner
Dam: So Stylish
Color: Dark bay/brown
The undefeated Gaming wired his debut at Del Mar, then rallied to win the Del Mar Futurity (G1) over the same track by 1 3/4 lengths, counting Citizen Bull among his beaten foes. But Gaming has yet to run farther than seven furlongs, so stretching out in distance for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile is a question mark.
Shin Believe
Start(s): 1
Wins: 1
Place: 0
Show: 0
Owner: Susumu Fujita
Breeder: Don Alberto Corporation
Trainer: Hideyuki Mori
Jockey: Yutaka Take
Top Speed Rating: N/A
Total Earnings: $44,765
Sire: Constitution
Dam: Sand Puce
Color: Chestnut
It’s clear Shin Believe has stamina; the Japanese invader won his debut racing 1,800 meters (about 1 1/8 miles), a lengthy distance North American juveniles rarely contest. Shin Believe is stepping up in class for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, but he’s talented and may outrun his odds under legendary Japanese jockey Yutaka Take.
Ecoro Azel
Start(s): 2
Wins: 1
Place: 0
Show: 0
Owner: Masatoshi Haramura
Breeder: Crawford Farms
Trainer: Hideyuki Mori
Jockey: Akira Sugawara
Top Speed Rating: N/A
Total Earnings: $51,418
Sire: Shancelot
Dam: Cicada’s Song
Color: Bay
Another Japanese challenger, Ecoro Azel won his debut sprinting 1,200 meters (about six furlongs) before coming home fifth in his first try against proven winners. He may need improvement to challenge against Grade 1 company in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.
Chancer McPatrick
Chancer McPatrick wins the Hopeful S. at Saratoga (Photo by Coglianese Photos/Susie Raisher)
Start(s): 3
Wins: 3
Place: 0
Show: 0
Owner: Flanagan Racing
Breeder: Rigney Racing
Trainer: Chad Brown
Jockey: Flavien Prat
Top Speed Rating: (99) when winning the Hopeful (G1) at Saratoga.
Total Earnings: $495,000
Sire: McKinzie
Dam: Bernadreamy
Color: Bay
Deep-closing Chancer McPatrick launched eye-catching rallies to win the Hopeful (G1) and Champagne (G1) in New York. The question is, can he produce a winning charge while shipping across the country and tackling a two-turn race for the first time? There are obstacles to overcome, but there’s plenty of speed in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile field, and a hot pace should help Chancer McPatrick keep his unbeaten record alive.
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