Study Guide: 2022 Kentucky Derby

May 04, 2022 J. Keeler Johnson

Get ready, racing fans! An overflow field of 22 talented three-year-old Thoroughbreds has been entered in the 148th running of the $3 million Kentucky Derby (G1) at Churchill Downs, presenting one of the hardest handicapping challenges of the year.

The historic 1 1/4-mile race features a maximum of 20 starters, so two horses—Rich Strike and Rattle N Roll—are also-eligible entrants who will only start if there are sufficient scratches from the main body of the field.

On paper, the 2022 Kentucky Derby is shaping up to be an ultra-competitive race with many viable win contenders. Let's meet the full field:

Drawing the rail isn't ideal in the 20-horse Kentucky Derby field, but if any horse can overcome this obstacle, it's Mo Donegal. The stretch-running colt is less likely to be affected by drawing inside, since he'll be dropping off the early pace anyway. Mo Donegal displayed a terrific turn of foot in the Wood Memorial (G2) four weeks ago, sprinting the final three furlongs in a blazing :35.61 to get up and win by a neck with a 111 Brisnet Speed rating, tied for the highest in the Kentucky Derby field. Mo Donegal also showed grit and determination to defeat future Blue Grass S. (G1) winner Zandon in the Remsen S. (G2) last fall, so any way you slice it, Mo Donegal has to be viewed as a formidable win threat under three-time Eclipse Award-winning jockey Irad Ortiz.

Happy Jack qualified for the Kentucky Derby via third-place finishes in the San Felipe S. (G2) and Santa Anita Derby (G1) on the tough California circuit. But Happy Jack was beaten by double-digit margins in both of those races, suggesting he'll need a step forward to challenge in the Kentucky Derby. On the bright side, trainer Doug O'Neill has won the Derby twice with I'll Have Another (2012) and Nyquist (2016).

Epicenter has improved by leaps and bounds in recent months and is one head defeat away from bringing a five-race win streak into the Kentucky Derby. Two starts back, he wired a deep field in the Risen Star S. (G2), counting fellow Kentucky Derby starters Smile Happy, Zandon, Pioneer of Medina, and Tawny Port among his beaten rivals. Then Epicenter showed a new dimension in the Louisiana Derby (G2), rating behind the leaders before pouncing to victory by 2 1/2 lengths. Epicenter did drift in noticeably down the homestretch of the Louisiana Derby, and he risks a tricky Kentucky Derby trip while breaking from post 3 with speed horses to his outside. But Epicenter's Brisnet Speed ratings are trending in a promising direction, and he has to be respected based off the company he defeated on the Road to the Kentucky Derby.

This Dubai raider has lots of early speed and set a fast pace when second in the UAE Derby (G2) last time out. But the son of Summer Front is arguably bred more like a turf horse than a dirt star, and he was weakening down the homestretch of the UAE Derby, so stepping up in class and distance for the Kentucky Derby could be challenging.

It's hard to knock anything Smile Happy has accomplished to date. He dominated the Kentucky Jockey Club S. (G2) at Churchill Downs last fall, counting future Tampa Bay Derby (G2) winner Classic Causeway and Florida Derby (G1) hero White Abarrio among his beaten rivals. This year, Smile Happy has run second in the Risen Star S. (G2) behind Epicenter and second in the Blue Grass S. (G1) behind Zandon. The latter effort saw Smile Happy race closer to the early pace than usual, which may have softened his late kick. Returning to closing tactics in the Kentucky Derby may trigger a step forward.

The stoutly bred Messier has run strongly in both of his starts at Santa Anita this season. After obliterating the Robert B. Lewis S. (G3) by 15 lengths with a 104 Brisnet Speed rating, Messier improved to a 108 when second in the Santa Anita Derby (G1). The latter race saw Messier press a quick pace in his first start off a two-month break before weakening late to finish just 2 1/4 lengths behind talented stablemate Taiba. Messier has trained strongly since then and is eligible to step forward at Churchill Downs, setting the stage for a victorious run under three-time Kentucky Derby-winning jockey John Velazquez.

Japanese horses have enjoyed extraordinary success on an international stage over the last six months, and perhaps their momentum can continue with Crown Pride. After going 2-for-3 to start his career in Japan, Crown Pride traveled to Dubai for the UAE Derby (G2), where he settled off the early leaders before rallying boldly to win by 2 3/4 lengths. The UAE Derby wasn't the fastest race on paper, but Crown Pride has trained strongly at Churchill Downs and has upside for improvement in his third run of the season. Don't dismiss Crown Pride from contention—a top-four finish may be within reach.

Charge It's pedigree contains some of the most productive bloodlines in U.S. racing, and the gray colt flashed plenty of promise when finishing second in the Florida Derby (G1) last month. But Charge It raced very greenly that day, hitting the gate and racing hesitantly in traffic before drifting in repeatedly down the homestretch. Charge It may have been the best horse in the Florida Derby, but his inexperience arguably got in the way. The Kentucky Derby thus presents a challenge for Charge It: can he race more professionally while squaring off against a much larger field in only his fourth career start?

A seventh-place finish in the Holy Bull S. (G3) on dirt has convinced some bettors Tiz the Bomb is better on turf and synthetic, the surfaces over which he's secured his four career stakes wins. But Tiz the Bomb broke his maiden by 14 1/4 lengths over the Ellis Park dirt track last summer, suggesting his Holy Bull no-show may have been a fluke. Tiz the Bomb was a fast winner of the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) over the Turfway Tapeta last month, defeating next-out Lexington S. (G3) winner Tawny Port by 2 1/4 lengths with a 101 Brisnet Speed rating, so Tiz the Bomb offers some longshot appeal in the Kentucky Derby.

Never out of the trifecta in four starts, Zandon has kept good company on the Road to the Kentucky Derby. Runner-up by a nose against Mo Donegal in the Remsen S. (G2), and third behind Epicenter and Smile Happy in the Risen Star S. (G2), Zandon took a big step forward in the Blue Grass S. (G1) at Keeneland four weeks after. After dropping back to last place entering the far turn, Zandon unleashed a powerful rally through traffic to surge past Smile Happy and win by 2 1/2 lengths with a 103 Brisnet Speed rating. The Kentucky Derby will mark his third run of the season (a strong angle in the past for Chad Brown-trained Kentucky Derby contenders), so look for Zandon to produce another competitive showing on Saturday.

Pioneer of Medina knocked heads with some tough rivals during the winter and spring, finishing fourth in the Risen Star S. (G2) behind Epicenter, Smile Happy, and Zandon and third in the Louisiana Derby (G2) behind Epicenter and Zozos. But Pioneer of Medina's career-best 96 Brisnet Speed rating looks a little light against the Kentucky Derby field. Perhaps dropping blinkers will help this speedy colt relax off the lead and produce an improved performance. 

Undefeated in two starts, Taiba ran a huge race in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) four weeks ago, unleashing a powerful finish to run down stablemate Messier and win by 2 1/4 lengths with a 111 Brisnet Speed rating. But can Taiba repeat the feat while facing a much larger field in his third career start, and only his second start around two turns? To date, only Leonatus in 1883 has won the Kentucky Derby off two career starts, so Taiba will have to buck more than a century of history to prevail on Saturday. But he might just have enough raw talent to get the job done under two-time Kentucky Derby-winning jockey Mike Smith. 

A dominant winner of the Fountain of Youth S. (G2) when employing stretch-running tactics, Simplification also displayed serious speed when dueling for the lead through fast fractions in the Florida Derby (G1). Although he weakened to finish third in the latter race, Simplification was only beaten 2 1/4 lengths while finishing best of the speed horses. Returning to an off-the-pace running style can potentially help Simplification move forward in the Kentucky Derby, so don't dismiss this accomplished colt from superfecta consideration.

Although Barber Road has yet to win at the stakes level, this former claimer has finished second or third in five consecutive stakes, including four on the Road to the Kentucky Derby. A late rally carried Barber Road to an encouraging runner-up finish in the Arkansas Derby (G1) five weeks ago, but his career-best 93 Brisnet Speed rating (earned in a sprint) looks a little light against this deep Kentucky Derby field.

With two victories from two starts this season, White Abarrio enters the Kentucky Derby in hot form. A pace-tracking trip carried White Abarrio to a 4 1/2-length victory in the Holy Bull S. (G3) over Simplification and Mo Donegal, after which he rallied from just behind the leaders to win the Florida Derby (G1) over Charge It and Simplification. But a pace meltdown benefited White Abarrio in the Florida Derby, and with a career-best 97 Brisnet Speed rating, White Abarrio is a bit slower on paper than the Kentucky Derby favorites.

Cyberknife has come to hand impressively in recent starts, dominating an allowance at Fair Grounds before employing stalking tactics to trounce the Arkansas Derby (G1) by 2 3/4 lengths. But Cyberknife wasn't facing the toughest competition on paper, and the back-to-back 94 Brisnet Speed ratings he received are lower than the figures posted by the Kentucky Derby favorites. Cyberknife may need another step forward to challenge against a deeper field at Churchill Downs.

After winning his first two starts against maiden and allowance company, Zozos produced a strong effort in the Louisiana Derby (G2), carving out the pace before settling for second place behind Epicenter. Zozos ran gamely and appeared to be gaining back a little ground through the final sixteenth of a mile, but the Kentucky Derby will mark a much tougher test. Zozos is bred to thrive as a sprinter/miler, and he risks a wide trip while breaking from post 19. 

A wide trip arguably cost Ethereal Road victory in the Rebel S. (G2) three starts back, as he was only beaten half a length by the ground-saving Un Ojo while finishing a nose clear of Barber Road. But Ethereal Road hasn't run quite as well since then, finishing seventh in the Blue Grass S. (G1) and fourth in the Lexington S. (G3). With a career-best 91 Brisnet Speed rating, Ethereal Road will likely need a step forward to challenge for a top-four finish in the Kentucky Derby, especially while breaking from the tricky outside post.

Rich Strike ran well over the Turfway Park Tapeta during the winter and spring, finishing third in the Leonatus S., fourth in the John Battaglia Memorial, and third in the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3). But the latter two races saw Rich Strike finish well behind Tiz the Bomb, and Rich Strike hasn't been as strong on dirt, so switching surfaces at Churchill Downs could be a challenge if Rich Strike draws in off the also-eligible list.   

The second also-eligible runner looked like a star in the making when dominating the Breeders' Futurity (G2) by 4 1/4 lengths last fall. But Rattle N Roll hasn't cracked the trifecta in three subsequent starts, finishing sixth in the Fountain of Youth S. (G2), fourth in the Louisiana Derby (G2), and sixth in the Blue Grass S. (G1). Rattle N Roll's late-running style is suited to picking up a piece of the purse in the Kentucky Derby, but he'll need a couple of scratches to draw in off the also-eligible list.