Study Guide: 2022 Gun Runner Stakes
Dec 19, 2022
Andthewinneris winning the Bourbon (G2) at Keeneland (Photo by Coady Photography)
The $100,000 Gun Runner S. at Fair Grounds isn't exactly steeped in history; the 1 1/16-mile Road to the Kentucky Derby qualifier was contested for the first time in 2021. But the inaugural edition produced 2022 Kentucky Derby (G1) 1-2 finishers Rich Strike and Epicenter, so it's safe to say the Gun Runner is capable of churning out top-class horses.
The 2022 Gun Runner will take place on Monday, Dec. 26 with seven horses vying for Derby qualification points on a 10-4-3-2-1 basis. Let's examine the field:
| Total 6 start(s) |
Top Speed Rating: (87) when finishing second in the Street Sense (G3) at Churchill Downs. |
| Wins: 1 | Total Earnings: $129,482 |
| Place: 1 | |
| Show: 1 |
| Owner: Dixiana Farms | Sire: Connect |
| Breeder: Dixiana Farms | Dam: Plaid |
| Trainer: Kenny McPeek | Color: Dark bay/brown |
| Jockey: Brian Hernandez |
Hayes Strike has already competed twice on the Road to the Kentucky Derby, running fourth in the Iroquois (G3) before improving to third in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2). For good measure, he boasts a runner-up effort in the Street Sense (G3). Hayes Strike closed ground boldly from behind a slow pace in the Kentucky Jockey Club and is eligible to move forward at Fair Grounds, though the lack of speed entered in the Gun Runner field could once again compromise his chances.
| Total 3 start(s) |
Top Speed Rating: (90) when winning his debut at Ellis Park. |
| Wins: 1 | Total Earnings: $66,800 |
| Place: 0 | |
| Show: 1 |
| Owner: West Point Thoroughbreds and Albaugh Family Stables | Sire: Quality Road |
| Breeder: Colts Neck Stables | Dam: Out Post |
| Trainer: Brad Cox | Color: Bay |
| Jockey: Florent Geroux |
Jace's Road started his career with promise, dominating his debut at Ellis Park by 6 1/4 lengths before finishing third (beaten only 1 1/2 lengths) in the Iroquois (G3) on the Road to the Kentucky Derby. But Jace's Road subsequently misfired over a sloppy track in the Street Sense (G3), fading to finish eighth by a wide margin. The good news is, a rebound to the form of his first two starts would place Jace's Road in the hunt for a top-four finish at Fair Grounds. Having hot jockey Florent Geroux in his corner is a positive.
| Total 6 start(s) |
Top Speed Rating: (94) when breaking his maiden at Churchill Downs. |
| Wins: 1 | Total Earnings: $139,950 |
| Place: 2 | |
| Show: 0 |
| Owner: John C. Oxley | Sire: Cairo Prince |
| Breeder: Bedouin Bloodstock | Dam: Bailzee |
| Trainer: Mark Casse | Color: Gray/roan |
| Jockey: Luis Saez |
Determinedly spent three of his first four starts competing on turf without much success, but the Mark Casse trainee has improved sharply since switching to dirt. After finishing second in a fast maiden special weight sprinting seven furlongs at Keeneland, Determinedly tackled the same distance and class level at Churchill Downs, where he pressed the early pace and drew off to dominate by 7 1/4 lengths. Those efforts produced back-to-back 94 Brisnet Speed ratings, the two highest numbers in the Gun Runner field. Determinedly has enough tactical speed to ensure a favorable trip in this largely paceless field, stamping the gray colt as the horse to beat.
| Total 2 start(s) |
Top Speed Rating: (77) when winning his debut at Laurel Park. |
| Wins: 1 | Total Earnings: $46,200 |
| Place: 0 | |
| Show: 1 |
| Owner: Riversedge Racing and Alifyfe Racing | Sire: Hard Spun |
| Breeder: Stone Farm | Dam: Pinkie Pact |
| Trainer: Michael Stidham | Color: Bay |
| Jockey: Colby Hernandez |
Old Alliance was much the best in his debut sprinting seven furlongs at Laurel Park, leading all the way to win by 4 3/4 lengths. But he was subsequently beaten 18 1/4 lengths when third in a $100,000 allowance optional claimer over the same distance at Keeneland, and Old Alliance's career-best 77 Brisnet Speed rating suggests he'll need a step forward to challenge for victory in the Gun Runner.
| Total 3 start(s) |
Top Speed Rating: (82) when winning the Jean Lafitte S. at Delta Downs. |
| Wins: 1 | Total Earnings: $69,550 |
| Place: 0 | |
| Show: 0 |
| Owner: Norman Stables | Sire: Mo Town |
| Breeder: Jory Sherman and Don Blowe | Dam: Moon Meeting Too |
| Trainer: Lonnie Briley | Color: Bay |
| Jockey: Juan Vargas |
Mazing Mark failed to factor in his first two starts against maiden special weight company on the Kentucky circuit, but shipping to Delta Downs in Louisiana proved more productive as Mazing Mark rallied to win by 1 1/2 lengths. The question is, can he repeat the feat against tougher competition at Fair Grounds? His career-best 82 Brisnet Speed rating is a little on the light side.
| Total 3 start(s) |
Top Speed Rating: (91) when winning a Churchill Downs maiden special weight. |
| Wins: 1 | Total Earnings: $79,924 |
| Place: 0 | |
| Show: 1 |
| Owner: Andrew N. Warren and Rania Warren | Sire: Violence |
| Breeder: Rock Ridge Thoroughbreds | Dam: Lemon Belle |
| Trainer: Ben Colebrook | Color: Bay |
| Jockey: Luan Machado |
Raise Cain never fired in his debut at Churchill Downs, but he clearly benefited from the experience. His second start produced a pace-pressing 5 1/4-length romp in a seven-furlong maiden special weight at Keeneland, after which Raise Cain ran third in the six-furlong Bowman Mill S. over the same track. Stretching out over one mile is unexplored territory for Raise Cain, but his pedigree suggests he'll handle 1 1/16 miles, and the 91 Brisnet Speed rating he posted in his maiden score is fast enough to factor for a top-four finish at Fair Grounds.
| Total 5 start(s) | Top Speed Rating: (89) when winning the Bourbon (G2) at Keeneland. |
| Wins: 2 | Total Earnings: $292,243 |
| Place: 0 | |
| Show: 2 |
| Owner: Susan Moulton | Sire: Oscar Performance |
| Breeder: Susan Moulton | Dam: Run Like the Boss |
| Trainer: Wayne Catalano | Color: Bay |
| Jockey: Corey Lanerie |
The most accomplished horse in the Gun Runner field is Andthewinneris, winner of the Bourbon (G2) racing 1 1/16 miles over the Keeneland turf course. Andthewinneris is dropping in class after finishing seventh by 3 3/4 lengths in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (G1) and can't be dismissed from consideration, though it's worth noting Andthewinneris was beaten 12 1/4 lengths when third in the Bashford Manor S., his lone dirt try to date. From a pedigree perspective, Andthewinneris is bred to thrive on turf, so switching back to dirt for the Gun Runner may prove challenging.
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