Kentucky Derby Post Positions: What History Tells Bettors

Apr 24, 2025

A Comprehensive Guide to Kentucky Derby Post Positions & Betting Trends

When it comes to betting on the Kentucky Derby, savvy horseplayers know that post position can be just as important as form, speed, or trainer stats. Since 1930, post positions have played a significant role in determining how well a horse breaks, navigates the crowded track, and ultimately finishes in the Run for the Roses®.

With the 151st Kentucky Derby set for May 3, 2025, now is the perfect time to examine which post positions have the strongest winning trends—and which ones might be worth avoiding.

📊 Which Post Positions Win the Most at the Kentucky Derby?

Let’s break down the most successful gate slots in Kentucky Derby history based on win and in-the-money (ITM) performance which indicates how many times the horse has finished First, Second, or Third.

🥇 Post Position 5 – The Most Successful Gate

Wins: 10
Win Rate: 10.5%
Why it works: Post 5 offers an ideal inside-mid draw—close to the rail but not trapped. Horses here often get a clean break and good tactical positioning early.

💰 Post Position 10 – Strongest In-The-Money Finish Rate

ITM Rate: 29.5%
Why it matters: Horses from Post 10 frequently find themselves in the mix late, even if they don’t always win. Ideal for exotic bets like trifectas and superfectas.

📈 Post Position 8 – Quietly Gaining Ground

Recent Winner: Mage (2023)
Win Rate: 9.6%
Insight: A reliable mid-gate position that offers flexibility—horses here can press the pace or drop back depending on the break.

❌ Post Positions with Poor Winning History

🚫 Post Position 17 – The Dreaded Draw

Wins: 0
ITM Finishes: 3
Stat Watch: No horse has ever won the Kentucky Derby from Gate 17 in over 40 attempts. Proceed with extreme caution.

⚠️ Post Position 2 – High ITM, But Long Win Drought

Last Win: 1978
ITM Rate: 27.4%
Takeaway: While horses from Post 2 often hit the board, getting trapped on the rail can cost valuable momentum.

🏇 Mystik Dan Breaks the Mold from Post 3

In 2024, Mystik Dan won from Post 3, breaking a winless streak for that gate dating back to 1998. While Post 3 doesn’t carry the best odds historically, it's proof that with the right horse and trip, any post can produce a champion.

🔍 What This Means for Bettors

If you're looking to place smart bets on the Kentucky Derby, consider these strategies:

• Win Bets: Favor horses in Post 5, Post 8, or Post 10—historically proven positions.
• Exacta/Trifecta Picks: Include horses from high ITM posts like 2, 10, and 8 for added coverage.
• Avoid longshots from Post 17, unless you're betting a deep superfecta or looking for an upset narrative.

📝 Final Thoughts: Post Draws Matter—But So Does the Horse

While post positions offer powerful historical insights, they’re only part of the picture. A talented horse with the right jockey, running style, and setup can overcome a less-than-ideal draw—as we’ve seen time and again.

Stay tuned for the official 2025 Kentucky Derby post-position draw happening on Saturday April 26th and keep this guide handy when finalizing your wagers. Tune in to watch the post-position draw happen live!

🎥 Watch Now:

👉 Kentucky Derby Morning Works Live Feed

Watch Kentucky Derby and Kentucky Oaks horses in their morning trainings.