International Scouting Report: Japan Road Winner Luxor Cafe

Apr 11, 2025 Kellie Reilly/Brisnet.com

Luxor Cafe dominated the Fukuryu at Nakayama

Luxor Cafe wrapped up the Japan Road invitation in the Fukuryu at Nakayama (Photo by Yuki Shimono/Kentucky Derby)

Japanese runners recorded their best-ever Kentucky Derby (G1) results last year, when Forever Young came up two noses short of glory in third, and T O Password finished a commendable fifth. Now Japan is back with two more chances on the first Saturday in May – Luxor Cafe, who won the Japan Road invitation, and Admire Daytona, who secured his spot via the Euro/Mideast Road.

Let’s take a look at each one, beginning with Luxor Cafe, who beat Admire Daytona in both of their meetings in Japan.

Pedigree and connections

A Kentucky-bred son of Triple Crown champion American Pharoah, Luxor Cafe is a full brother to Cafe Pharoah, who topped the 2020 Japan Road but didn’t ship for that pandemic-delayed Derby. Cafe Pharoah ultimately developed into a Japanese champion at the age of five.

Luxor Cafe was bred by the Coolmore-affiliated partnership of Orpendale/Chelston/Wynatt & Westerberg Ireland. His mother, Grade 2 heroine Mary’s Follies, was a versatile campaigner who won on both dirt and turf. By Grade 1-winning millionaire and stellar international sire More Than Ready, the fourth-placer in the 2000 Kentucky Derby, she scored her signature win in the 2009 Mrs. Revere (G2) on the turf at Churchill Downs.

Mary’s Follies has become an extraordinary broodmare, producing champions in the U.S. and Japan who excelled on different surfaces. Regal Glory, her daughter by 2011 Derby star Animal Kingdom, won an Eclipse Award as champion turf female in 2022. The same year, her son Cafe Pharoah scored a repeat victory in the February (G1) and reigned as Japan’s champion dirt horse.

As his name implies, Cafe Pharoah is by American Pharoah. Aside from their genetic bond as full brothers, they share the same human connections. Luxor Cafe represents the same owner, Koichi Nishikawa, and trainer, Noriyuki Hori.

Among the top trainers in Japan, Hori has conditioned other champions including Maurice, the Japanese Horse of the Year in 2015; turf sprinter Kinshasa no Kiseki; and a pair of champion three-year-old colts, Duramente (2015) and Tastiera (2023), who both won the Japanese Derby (G1) on turf.

Although Hori’s only North American runner so far, Satono Carnaval, was ninth in the 2024 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1), Hori is well known for his success abroad, especially in Hong Kong. He’s won a Group 1 in Australia too, while placing in major events on Dubai World Cup night.

Learning his craft

Luxor Cafe has been favored in all six of his career starts. Bet down to 2-5 in an Aug. 24 newcomers’ race at Sapporo, he ran very greenly in fourth. He appeared to resent the kickback when thrusting his head up in the air and racing erratically into the first turn. Luxor Cafe regrouped into a challenging position but flattened out.

Wheeling back a week later, at the same track and about a 1 1/16-mile trip, Luxor Cafe showed that he’d learned a lot with a much-improved effort. He missed by just a neck, finishing his last 600 meters (about three furlongs) fastest of all in :36.9, and he hasn’t lost since.

After a nearly three-month holiday, Luxor Cafe returned to break his maiden in juvenile track-record time Nov. 23 at Tokyo. But the 3-10 favorite only just prevailed in a titanic tussle with Admire Daytona.

The two were drawn on the outside of the big field, Luxor Cafe in post 15 and Admire Daytona in post 16, in the one-turn affair. Under Coolmore’s go-to rider Ryan Moore, Luxor Cafe dropped back to about midpack early and followed Admire Daytona into contention. Admire Daytona pounced on the leaders first, only to be accosted by Luxor Cafe in the stretch. They battled to the wire while pulling far ahead of the rest. Luxor Cafe posted a slightly faster final sectional than Admire Daytona (:35.3 versus :35.5), giving him the victory by a nose.

Their time for the metric mile on a good track, 1:35.8, ranked as the fastest in a two-year-old race over the distance at Tokyo. Later on the same day, the first leg of the Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby – the Cattleya S. – went to Natural Rise in 1:36.4, implying that Luxor Cafe and Admire Daytona had better prospects going forward.

Luxor Cafe resurfaced Jan. 11 in an about 1 1/8-mile allowance at Nakayama. With a new rider aboard, Australian-based Rachel King, he took up a more forward position to prompt the pace, struck the front still in hand on the far turn, and opened up down the lane. He didn’t change to his correct lead back on this right-handed track, but it didn’t bother his momentum as he was much the best by five lengths.

Japan Road

His two ensuing wins in Japan Road scoring races reflected a broadly similar pattern – a narrower decision going one turn at Tokyo, and a dominant display going longer at Nakayama.

Reverting to Tokyo’s metric mile for the Feb. 23 Hyacinth S., a listed stakes, Luxor Cafe again drew toward the outside, as he did in his maiden. The 4-5 favorite didn’t drop as much off the pace in a steadily-run race, but bided his time in the clear and breezed to the lead in midstretch.

When King asked him to put the Hyacinth away, Luxor Cafe responded, but it wasn’t over yet. The filly Promised Gene, who was arguably better suited by how the race unfolded, quickened even more strongly with a final sectional of :34.7 to reduce the gap. Yet Luxor Cafe’s final sectional of :35.1 was enough to maintain a half-length margin at the wire. His time of 1:37.6, on a fast track, reflected the moderate early tempo. Familiar foe Admire Daytona wasn’t able to close effectively enough off that pace and wound up fourth.

The Hyacinth form was boosted when Admire Daytona came back to win the UAE Derby (G2) on Dubai World Cup night. Moreover, Hyacinth third-place finisher Don in the Mood filled the same spot in the UAE Derby.

Luxor Cafe was heavily backed into 3-10 favoritism for the concluding leg of the Japan Road, an about 1 1/8-mile Nakayama allowance called the Fukuryu. Not only did he have a class edge as a listed stakes winner dropping into allowance company, but he was also sure to appreciate stepping back up in distance to two turns.

Confidently handled by Joao Moreira, who’s earned the nickname “Magic Man” during his prolific career, Luxor Cafe delivered his most authoritative performance so far. He had to cover extra ground from the far outside post 11, but easily swept from off the pace turning for home. Once again, he didn’t change leads on a right-handed track, but still won for fun by five lengths, geared down, to extend his winning streak to four.

Luxor Cafe motored his final sectional in a field-best :36.3, and his overall time of 1:52.1 was much faster than an earlier maiden (1:55.2) and almost as fast as older allowance horses (1:51.7) in the nightcap.

Kentucky Derby chances

Luxor Cafe brings several significant qualities to bear – raw talent, two-turn aptitude, a progressive profile, and a just-off-the-pace running style that could put him in an advantageous position. Since three of his four wins have come on a good track, rain at Churchill Downs would be a plus.

Yet, Luxor Cafe does have a couple of question marks too. Unlike Forever Young, who had international experience before the Kentucky Derby, Luxor Cafe will be making his first foreign venture. The travel element poses a new variable.

Another consideration is whether Luxor Cafe can run the race of his life on the first Saturday in May. Brother Cafe Pharoah and half-sister Regal Glory were both smart sophomores who hit greater heights as older horses, and he’s eligible to improve further with maturity.

If Luxor Cafe is far enough along the developmental curve, there remains a tactical question. Given how he’s enjoyed outside trips at home, what happens if he’s buried on the inside or covered up among horses in a bulky field? He’s thrown his head up when getting kickback early in his career, and the Kentucky Derby will be a test like no other.

Nevertheless, it’s worth remembering that Luxor Cafe has far more to recommend him than last year’s Fukuryu winner, T O Password. That makes Luxor Cafe an exciting contender with legitimate hopes of doing sire American Pharoah proud.

RELATED: International scouting report on Admire Daytona

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