Forte draws post 11 in Florida Derby

Offering points on the 100-40-30-20-10 scale to the top five, the Florida Derby is the 14th and final race (6:40 p.m. ET) on the Saturday card. Here are four talking points:

Drawing outside in route races is a definite disadvantage at Gulfstream Park. On the other hand, most races wouldn’t involve a top contender who holds such a substantial class edge over his opponents. In fairly well-matched contests, having to cover more ground than your rivals is costly, and likely the difference between victory and defeat.

On paper, Forte appears to be so much the best, that a wide trip might not be enough to offset his superiority. His Brisnet Prime Power stat is a full 13 points higher than the second-best. 

Trained by six-time Florida Derby winner Todd Pletcher, Forte is riding a four-race winning streak – last year’s Hopeful (G1), Breeders’ Futurity (G1), and Eclipse-clinching Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1), followed by a smashing return in the March 4 Fountain of Youth (G2) here. 

Forte’s running style, punching from a few lengths off the pace, suggests that the step up to 1 1/8 miles can only help his cause. Still, his post can make the Florida Derby a more competitive challenge than it otherwise would have been. 

2. Mage and Cyclone Mischief hope to turn the tables on Forte.

The respective third and fourth from the Fountain of Youth, Cyclone Mischief and Mage, return to try Forte again. 

Mage has the better case to improve for trainer Gustavo Delgado. The son of champion Good Magic was handed a tall task last time, stretching out from a seven-furlong debut romp to the 1 1/16-mile Fountain of Youth, and he ran very well in fourth. Mage stands to benefit from that experience.

Cyclone Mischief finished ahead of Mage, holding third after setting the Fountain of Youth pace, but he’s been inconsistent. Visually impressive in his maiden and allowance scores, the Dale Romans pupil has been beaten in all three tries on the Road to the Kentucky Derby. Also coming off the Fountain of Youth is sixth-placer Il Miracolo, who adds blinkers.

3. Dubyuhnell, Fort Bragg, and Jungfrau are on rebound missions.

Dubyuhnell, like Mage a son of Good Magic, emerged as a Derby hopeful when capturing the Remsen (G2). But his reappearance in the Feb. 11 Sam F. Davis (G3) went all wrong, as he was badly hampered going into the clubhouse turn and never recovered in eighth. The Danny Gargan trainee hopes to get back into the Derby picture here. Yet he drew poorly too, in the far outside post 12. 

Fort Bragg likewise shaped as one to follow last fall. First-past-the-post but demoted for interfering with Practical Move in a Santa Anita maiden, the Tapit colt came right back to break his maiden over Reincarnate. While those two have progressed on the trail, Fort Bragg has stalled. He was a distant third in the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) and fifth in the San Felipe (G2), both won smartly by Practical Move. Trainer Tim Yakteen initially entered Fort Bragg in the Sunland Park Derby (G3), then scratched to try the Florida Derby instead.

Jungfrau was a too-bad-to-be-true sixth in the Feb. 11 Withers (G3) at Aqueduct, where he was rank and checked early, dropped behind the field, and wound up being eased. A Juddmonte blueblood by champion Arrogate, Jungfrau returns to the scene of his best race so far. The Bill Mott colt was awarded his maiden win at Gulfstream, via disqualification of a rival.

4. Trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. entered four – that’s one-third of the field.

Saffie Joseph Jr., who sent out White Abarrio to win last year’s Florida Derby, has amassed four entrants for Saturday. West Coast Cowboy was last seen finishing third as a 58-1 longshot in the Holy Bull (G3). Mr. Ripple, a big debut winner in October, has since placed in a pair of allowances. Third to Cyclone Mischief around a one-turn mile, he was most recently second over this 1 1/8-mile trip. Mr. Ripple is a son of 2011 Florida Derby winner Dialed In.

The other two are newcomers to the Joseph barn, both recently acquired by C2 Racing Stables (White Abarrio’s co-owner) either alone or in partnership. Nautical Star just broke his maiden in a photo-finish at Oaklawn Park. Mr. Peeks, a maiden who has raced twice in sprints, is by 2014 Kentucky Derby and Preakness (G1) champion California Chrome. He figures to add to the contested pace scenario.

All four are longshots, as is Shaq Diesel, most recently 10th in the Risen Star (G2) for trainer Renaldo Richards. A two-time winner at Gulfstream, versus lesser last fall, he has been running creditably at Tampa Bay Downs, including an allowance score and a third in the Pasco S. Taking the blinkers off could help him settle a bit.