Expert Pick of the Week: 2025 Tampa Bay Derby

Mar 06, 2025 John Mucciolo/TwinSpires.com

Owen Almighty winning the Ellis Park Juvenile S. at Ellis Park (Photo by Coady Media)

A smart group of seven talented three-year-olds will travel 1 1/16 miles on the dirt in Saturday’s $400,000 Tampa Bay Derby (G3) at Tampa Bay Downs. The Brian Lynch-trained Owen Almighty has performed well in each of his five career assignments to date and is perfectly drawn on the rail for his second two-turn test.

Owen Almighty was last seen finishing a courageous second in the Sam F. Davis S. on the oval, where he attended the pace throughout and gave way to a good one in the final yards. The $350,000 son of Speightstown has put in a pair of excellent races on the surface in advance of Saturday, and I feel that his familiarity with the venue will be a big benefit to him. The Kentucky-bred colt doesn’t need the lead in order to win, but I expect Irad Ortiz, Jr. to send him from the break to secure the rail on the front end on this occasion.

Owen Almighty makes his 3YO debut tomorrow in the Pasco S. at Tampa Bay Downs! 🤩

He was last seen finishing 2nd in the G3 Iroquois at Churchill Downs. pic.twitter.com/Rh5PTHJRlG

— TwinSpires Racing 🏇 (@TwinSpires) January 10, 2025

Brad Cox’s Patch Adams was a smashing maiden winner at Churchill Downs two back, which preceded a fourth-place result in the Southwest S. (G3) at Oaklawn Park most recently. The well-bred son of Into Mischief has come back with a quartet of morning drills since his trip to Arkansas and fired a bullet five panels at Payson Park in his latest move to prepare for his local debut. Florent Geroux, who guided the colt in his first two races, will take the reins.

Conditioner Chad Brown will saddle two major contenders in the field. Dual Grade 1 star Chancer McPatrick will make his 2025 bow and was last seen finishing sixth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) at Santa Anita. This $725,000 son of McKinzie will don blinkers for the initial time on Saturday in hopes of keeping him in range early prior to unleashing his substantial late burst with Flavien Prat in the silks.

Hill Road, the other Brown pupil, rallied from well back to be third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) in his first run on U. S. soil. The Kentucky-bred son of Quality Road looks to be training well for his first try for this barn, and he will also have blinkers on for the first time. Tyler Gaffalione will pilot the bay colt.

Expert Pick

A trifecta with #1 Owen Almighty on top of #2 Chancer McPatrick, #3 Hill Road, and #7 Patch Adams in the 2025 Tampa Bay Derby is the Best Bet of the Week.