Expert Pick of the Week: 2025 Louisiana Derby

Mar 19, 2025 John Mucciolo/TwinSpires.com

John Hancock wins the Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay Downs. (Photo by SV Photo)

A strong field consisting of 10 three-year-olds will run 1 3/16 miles on the Fair Grounds main surface in Saturday’s lucrative, $1 million Louisiana Derby (G2). The important 2025 Road to the Kentucky Derby challenge series event will reward the top five finishers of the tilt with qualifying points towards the Run for the Roses on a 100-50-25-15-10 scale.

John Hancock was a sharp wire-to-wire at first asking in a six-furlong dash at Tampa Bay Downs on January 8, and the son of Constitution followed that score up with an impressive triumph in the Sam F. Davis S. at the same venue while toppling a pair of very good three-year-olds in his route debut. Trained by Brad Cox, the Kentucky-bred chestnut was flattered when the horse he dueled with throughout last time, Owen Almighty, came back to dominate the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) in his subsequent showing, and the lightly raced youngster has a lot of room for improvement going forward, as well.

The top selection has trained forwardly leading up to this difficult task, and the rail post seems ideal for him to be put into the race from the outset. John Hancock has yet to be headed from two starts, and while he will face pressure in the early stages on Saturday, I still expect him to be the one to run down turning for home with Flavien Prat coming in to retain the mount.

Sunland Park Derby runner-up Caldera has improved his Brisnet Speed number in each lifetime run to date, and he has really moved forward since having blinkers added two races prior. The $500,000 two-year-old purchase does not appear to have many distance limitations at this stage of his development, and he has also shown the versatility to run well from on or off of the pace.

The Kentucky-bred son of Liam’s Map has fired a pair of bullet five-eighths morning drills in anticipation of his graded stakes bow, and I envision the improving three-year-old giving a fine account of himself in this contest. Tyler Gaffalione taking the reins will be a benefit to the win threat.

Todd Pletcher’s Vassimo finished off the board in the Risen Star S. (G2) in his initial try with stakes runners and gets blinkers added for this event. By hot sire Nyquist, the colt was 2-for-2 prior to his latest appearance, and I like the pair of morning works that he registered leading up to Saturday. Irad Ortiz, Jr. will be in the stirrups.

Expert Pick of the Week

An exacta with #1 John Hancock on top of #5 Caldera and #7 Vassimo in the 2025 Louisiana Derby is the Expert Pick of the Week.