Expert Pick of the Week: 2025 Kentucky Derby

Apr 29, 2025 John Mucciolo/TwinSpires.com

Journalism preparing for the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs. (Photo by Coady Media / Credit to Renee Torbit)

The 151st edition of the $5 million Kentucky Derby (G1) is upon us! A total of 21 three-year-olds have been entered to run 1 1/4 miles over the famed Churchill Downs surface in the Saturday spectacle. Morning-line choice Journalism has done little wrong in his career and comes into the storied event as the one to beat for conditioner Michael McCarthy.

By standout sire Curlin, the colt checked in third in his sprint debut in October but has been unstoppable since his unveiling while powering home to wins in four races in succession. The Kentucky-bred bay eclipsed the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) to conclude his juvenile season, and he has been even better in 2025. Journalism beat a strong group on March 1 in the San Felipe S. (G2) at Santa Anita, and followed that performance with a superb score in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) on April 5.

The fantastic sophomore has improved his Brisnet Speed rating with each lifetime appearance to date and seems well poised to put forth another top-class effort in the Derby. He possesses a versatile running style that will help secure a sensible position in the early stages of the 10-furlong test, and the move to 1 1/4 miles seems well within his scope, too. The $825,000 yearling purchase has reportedly been impressive in his morning activity in Louisville and he has no major knocks coming into his toughest assignment to date. I envision the budding superstar tracking the contested early tempo from midpack before being asked for his best run approaching the turn for home by Umerto Rispoli.

.@TheBrownAndrew gets @umbyrispoli's thoughts on post #8 for Journalism, who is the 3/1 ML favorite for the Kentucky Derby! 🤩 pic.twitter.com/M6Yf9GchKj

— TwinSpires Racing 🏇 (@TwinSpires) April 27, 2025

Fountain of Youth S. (G2) victor Sovereignty is a formidable foe in his own right and will be tough to hold off late while making his third run of the season. Trained by Bill Mott, the Godolphin homebred graduated at Churchill when dominating the Street Sense S. (G3) in the fall, and the son of Into Mischief has registered a pair of very good prep races this campaign in advance of the Run for the Roses. The confirmed late runner is training in forward fashion in preparation for the race, and he will receive a quick early tempo to aid his substantial late kick with Junior Alvarado taking the reins.

Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) romper Final Gambit is bred for the distance and has never been better for trainer Brad Cox. The striking gray will be a threat inside the final furlong while making his local debut under the guidance of Luan Machado.

Champion Citizen Bull didn’t run his best race last time and also must overcome the ever-challenging rail post slot, but the Baffert trainee still possesses a world of ability, and he will give a nice account of himself after training very well in the weeks leading up to the marquee event.

Expert Pick

An exacta key box with #8 Journalism on top of #1 Citizen Bull, #3 Final Gambit, and #18 Sovereignty in the 2025 Kentucky Derby is the Best Bet of the Week.