Expert Pick of the Week: 2025 Florida Derby

Mar 27, 2025

Tappan Street wins at Gulfstream Park. (Photo by Coglianese Photo / Credit to Lauren King)

A fantastic field of 10 sophomores will travel 1 1/8 miles over the Gulfstream Park dirt in Saturday’s $1 million Florida Derby (G1). The feature on a huge day of racing attracted some top-notch prospects in the thrilling 2025 Road to the Kentucky Derby challenge series event, and the top-five finishers will receive qualifying points on a 100-50-25-15-10 basis.

Tappan Street was a big second in the Holy Bull S. (G3) while making his second lifetime run, and I’m expecting big things from the Brad Cox trainee. By top sire Into Mischief, the lightly raced colt made a stout run in the lane to debut on the oval while going the tricky seven-furlong distance on December 28, and the $1 million yearling purchase proved his class when leading late in his stakes debut while ultimately finishing a clear second, more than nine lengths of his nearest foe under the wire.

The Kentucky-bred has posted six strong morning drills leading up to this assignment and has the versatility to run well from anywhere in the early stages of the tilt. I feel that the bay will thrive at nine panels, and he figures to receive a nice voyage behind an honest pace leading up to the top of the lane on Saturday, as well. Regular pilot Luis Saez will take the reins atop the leading selection.

Fountain of Youth winner Sovereignty makes his next start in Saturday's G1 Florida Derby! 🤩

With regular rider Junior Alvarado out due to injury, Manny Franco will pick up the mount for this weekend. pic.twitter.com/oNwCs1aAVh

— TwinSpires Racing 🏇 (@TwinSpires) March 26, 2025

Godolphin homebred Sovereignty might be the most talented runner in the field and was quite impressive in taking the Fountain of Youth S. (G2) on the strip in his 2025 debut. The bay colt has a massive closing kick and also has room to improve while making his second run of the season. By Into Mischief, the strapping sophomore has improved his Brisnet Speed number in each lifetime run to date and will make his run from well back early on.

Irad Ortiz, Jr. opts to guide smashing maiden winner Disruptor for trainer Todd Pletcher. The expensive son of Gun Runner left no doubt in his 9 1/4-length score on the course on March 1, and he looks like a three-year-old that will not have any issues going a route of ground as he progresses. Chestnut colt has put in two useful morning spins on the Palm Beach Downs training strip in advance of his stakes debut, and the top prospect will be forwardly placed from the opening bell of this heat.

Expert Pick

An exacta with #9 Tappan Street on top of #4 Disruptor and #10 Sovereignty in the 2025 Florida Derby is the Best Bet of the Week.