Expert Pick of the Week: 2025 Federico Tesio Stakes

Apr 16, 2025 John Mucciolo/TwinSpires.com

Pay Billy. (Photo by Maryland Jockey Club)

A total of 10 sophomores will travel 1 1/8 miles over the Laurel Park main oval in Saturday’s $150,000 Federico Tesio S. The race offers a berth into the Preakness S. (G1) at Pimlico on May 17 to the winner, as long as the three-year-old is Triple Crown nominated.

The Michael Gorham-trained Pay Billy didn’t show all that much in the first trio of races to commence his career, but the bay has flipped the proverbial switch since then. The son of Improbable broke his maiden in his fourth try in a six-furlong dash on the surface in December, which was followed by a dominant allowance victory at this venue to kick off his 2025 campaign.

Pay Billy moved up in class for the Miracle Wood S. in his next assignment and fell a nose short while running a big one, and he was last seen coming home a convincing, 3 1/2-length winner of the Private Terms S. in his latest endeavor. The vastly improved colt has excellent positional speed and a fine post slot to be in the mix while in the clear throughout the contest. The nine-furlong trip seems well within his scope, and I expect the $60,000 juvenile purchase to take command in the early stretch with regular pilot Raul Mena retaining the ride.

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Surfside Moon ran the race of his lifetime when a clear runner-up in the Withers S. at Aqueduct on Feb. 1 and will be a major contender with anything resembling that performance. Trained by James Lawrence, the chestnut colt has posted four solid morning drills in the interim, and he should be able to save ground every step of the way from the rail with Mychel Sanchez inheriting the ride.

The unbeaten Kentucky Outlaw is the wildcard in the field for trainer Felissa Dunn. By Outwork, the bargain $12,000 purchase dominated a sprint race on debut at Parx and followed that up with an equally impressive allowance romp when stretching out in distance second time out. The fleet bay continues to train swiftly in advance of his stakes debut, and he will be controlling speed if sent from the break by regular rider Silvestre Gonzalez.

Expert Pick

An exacta with #9 Pay Billy on top of #1 Surfside Moon and #5 Kentucky Outlaw in the 2025 Federico Tesio Stakes is the Best Bet of the Week.