Expert Pick of the Week: 2025 Blue Grass Stakes

Apr 02, 2025 John Mucciolo/TwinSpires.com

Burnham Square wins the Holy Bull at Gulfstream Park. (Photo by Coglianese Photo)

Keeneland's Friday card has been pushed to Monday and Saturday's racing will take place on Tuesday due to the weekends forecast of severe weather. 

A standout field of seven sophomores will vie in Saturday’s lucrative, $1.25 million Blue Grass S. (G1) at Keeneland. The 1 1/18-mile contest attracted some of the top three-year-olds in training and looks like an ultra-competitive 2025 Road to the Kentucky Derby challenge series event, with the top five finishers earning qualifying points on a 100-50-25-15-10 basis.

Holy Bull S. (G3) victor Burnham Square has been something of a work in progress this campaign for conditioner Ian Wilkes, but the son of Liam’s Map is very talented and looks like a major player in this contest. The three-year-old gelding graduated with authority three back at Gulfstream Park, which preceded his professional victory in the Holy Bull. In his most recent assignment, the Kentucky-bred bay ran in spots when three lengths back in the Fountain of Youth S. (G2), and he has posted a trio of nice morning drills in the interim.

Burnham Square has the pedigree and running style to thrive at the nine-furlong distance, and he figures to receive an advantageous voyage on Saturday, as well. Brian Hernandez, Jr., who picks up the live mount, will have the gelding in the third flight early behind a fast pace before asking him for his best approaching the turn for home while getting the jump on the deep-closing types.

Blue Grass S. contender Burnham Square getting his bath this morning at @ChurchillDowns! 🫧🧽🧼🛁🌹🏇 pic.twitter.com/zUS0Ke7Sbb

— TwinSpires Racing 🏇 (@TwinSpires) April 2, 2025

Jose Ortiz inherits the ride atop Tampa Bay Derby (G3) winner Owen Almighty, who has run big in each of his career races to date. By Speightstown, the $350,000 yearling purchase has good early speed and proved that he can carry it over a route of ground most recently, too. The Kentucky-bred bay fired a five-furlong bullet leading up to his toughest assignment to date, and the colt will be forcing the tempo from the opening bell for trainer Brian Lynch.

The once-beaten Fountain of Youth (G2) runner-up River Thames, and two-time Grade 1 winner Chancer McPatrick, who was second best in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) in his sophomore bow, also merit a lot of respect in the excellent field.

Expert Pick of the Week

A trifecta with #3 Burnham Square on top of #1 River Thames, #4 Owen Almighty, and #6 Chancer McPatrick in the 2025 Blue Grass Stakes is the Best Bet of the Week.