Expert Pick of the Week: 2024 West Virginia Derby

Jul 31, 2024 John Mucciolo/TwinSpires.com

A late-blooming cast of nine sophomores will go postward in Sunday’s lucrative $500,000 West Virginia Derby (G3) at Mountaineer Park. Juddmonte Farm homebred Dragoon Guard is a neck shy of being unblemished from four lifetime appearances and exits a strong victory in the Indiana Derby (G3) last time out. He is the Expert Pick of the Week.

Trained by Brad Cox, the son of Arrogate made his seasonal debut at Keeneland in April and dusted maiden special weight foes while being backed at 3-5 odds in the main-track dash. The gray moved out to one mile in a subsequent allowance tilt at Churchill Downs, and he came home first by a similar margin while being heavily supported at the windows, once again.

In his stakes and two-turn debut most recently, the colt took a short edge to the top of the stretch before spurting clear in the lane, and it surely seemed like he could have run longer on that occasion. The move to nine furlongs will not hinder the budding star who comes in with a pair of maintenance morning drills in advance of Sunday. Regular pilot Florent Geroux coming in to guide the colt is a great sign of confidence to me, as well.

Dragoon Guard broke his maiden on Sunday @keenelandracing in his 3yo debut for @bradcoxracing.

That performance earned him the TwinSpires Stable Alerts Horse of the Week!

Click the link below to add him to your stable!#NeverMissAWinner ⤵️ https://t.co/pZqADcaBW9 pic.twitter.com/xxEftaLfyK

— TwinSpires Racing 🏇 (@TwinSpires) April 23, 2024

Society Man proved that his runner-up performance in the Wood Memorial (G2) at 106-1 odds was no fluke when delivering a crushing late kick en route to a tally in the Matt Winn (G3) beneath the Twin Spires last time out. The Good Magic gelding, who never got involved in the Kentucky Derby (G1) two prior, is really coming into his own for conditioner Danny Gargan. The Kentucky-bred chestnut possesses a nice closing burst, and I believe that the 1 1/8-mile distance is an ideal one for the contender, too.

Steve Asmussen’s Dimatic is ascending as of late and will be a threat in this spot with another forward move. The chestnut son of Gun Runner was a clear runner-up in the Texas Derby two starts back, and I liked his even fourth-place result in the Iowa Derby most recently when coming home well behind a moderate early tempo. The Winchell homebred gets a better post to save ground early, and the pace of the race will be more honest than last time, too. Cristian Torres retains the mount.

Expert Pick

An exacta with #3 Dragoon Guard on top of #8 Society Man and #2 Dimatic in the 2024 West Virginia Derby is the Best Bet of the Week.