Expert Pick of the Week: 2024 Virginia Derby
Sep 04, 2024
Deterministic won his stakes debut, the Gotham at Aqueduct (Photo by Coglianese Photography / credit to Chelsea Durand)
A strong field of 12 will travel 1 1/8 miles over the Colonial Downs turf in Saturday’s lucrative $500,000 Virginia Derby (G3). The contest for three-year-olds has numerous viable contenders lined up, including the Christophe Clement-trained Deterministic, who finished a close third in the Saratoga Derby (G1) in his latest outing.
By Liam’s Map, the colt was a stylish juvenile winner at first asking on the Saratoga main oval, and he was victorious in his 2024 debut as well when coming home a two-length winner of the Gotham S. (G3) at Aqueduct.
Deterministic gained 50 points on the Road to @KentuckyDerby 150 with a win in the Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct on Saturday!
Click the link below to add him to your TwinSpires Stable Alerts!#NeverMissAWinner ⤵️ https://t.co/iUFYXoN07r pic.twitter.com/DQrDxFNja7
— TwinSpires Racing 🏇 (@TwinSpires) March 4, 2024
Following a pair of unplaced results in the graded ranks, Deterministic was moved to the turf in June and closed well to be second best behind Neat in the Manila S., which preceded his nice run at the Spa in advance of this contest. The $625,000 yearling purchase has posted a pair of useful morning drills on the green over the Oklahoma sod in preparation for his initial try at Colonial, and the Kentucky-bred will be rallying from off the early tempo with Manny Franco inheriting the ride.
Walmac Farm’s Oscar’s World was fourth in a deep stakes field at Ellis Park in his latest performance and is a nice fit in this spot for conditioner Brian Lynch. The bay has yet to be especially consistent in his lifetime, but if he runs to his allowance score two races back, then the ridgling will be a major presence Saturday with Martin Garcia taking the reins. I expect him to be tracking the tempo from the second flight in the early stages.
Kent S. victor Desvio has improved his Brisnet Speed number in a trio of races in succession, with the last pair resulting in tallies on the weeds since having blinkers added. Trained by Madison Meyers, the gelded son of Yoshida has handled both yielding and firm turf courses as of late and will be doing his best work inside the final furlong under the guidance of Ben Curtis.
Expert Pick
An exacta with #3 Deterministic on top of #7 Desvio and #10 Oscar’s World in the 2024 Virginia Derby is the Best Bet of the Week.
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