Expert Pick of the Week: 2024 Sam F. Davis Stakes

Feb 08, 2024 John Mucciolo/TwinSpires.com

A deep and talented field of 12 three-year-olds will run 1 1/16 miles on the Tampa Bay Downs dirt in Saturday’s $250,000 Sam F. Davis S. (G3). The 2024 Road to the Kentucky Derby series tilt will reward the top five across the wire with qualifying points on a 20-10-6-4-2 structure.

Morplay Racing’s No More Time finished a solid runner-up in a debut run at Gulfstream Park on Sept. 9. Next came a fine maiden victory at the same venue on Oct. 22 when the colt earned a hefty 103 Brisnet Late Pace number going one mile.

The son of Not This Time broke slowly and endured a troubled voyage when unplaced in the Mucho Macho Man S. in his sophomore unveiling, and the Iowa-bred will take a major step forward in his second run of 2024. Trained by Jose D’Angelo, No More Time skipped the Holy Bull S. (G3) last weekend to contest this event, and I expect a huge effort from him with Paco Lopez aboard. He fired a bullet five panels at Palm Meadows in advance of his graded bow and will be forwardly placed from the break.

Change of Command has steadily improved for conditioner Shug McGaughey and comes off a pair of wins in succession. The expensive yearling purchase has the early foot to stay in the mix from the break, and the son of Into Mischief is also proven at the distance following his game allowance score at Gulfstream last time out. The Kentucky-bred colt adds blinkers after his latest effort, and if his two swift morning drills in the interim are any indication, then the Courtlandt Farms colorbearer will be formidable on Saturday with Tyler Gaffalione inheriting the ride.

I’ve liked both performances put in by Bill Mott’s Elysian Meadows to date and will give the New York-bred a chance from the outside post. By City of Light, the colt has come home with very good energy in each of his one-turn runs leading up to his stakes debut, and the $175,000 purchase gives the impression of a youngster who will thrive on the sprint-to-route move, too. Junior Alvarado picks up the mount.

Expert Pick

An exacta with #5 No More Time on top of #9 Change of Command and #12 Elysian Meadows in the Sam F. Davis is the Best Bet of the Week.