Expert Pick of the Week: 2024 Commonwealth Turf Stakes

Nov 20, 2024 John Mucciolo/TwinSpires.com

A well-matched field of nine sophomores will travel 1 1/16 miles on the Churchill Downs green in Saturday’s $300,000 Commonwealth Turf S. (G3). Canadian champion My Boy Prince will make his debut beneath the Twin Spires and will be the one to catch from the inside post. Trained by Mark Casse, the three-year-old has run up against a pair of deep fields on the lawn in succession and looks like a nice fit in this one. He is the Expert Pick of the Week.

The son of Cairo Prince checked in sixth in the Woodbine Mile (G1) two races prior, and he went too fast early in the Bryan Station S. (G3) at Keeneland in his latest venture when tiring in an unplaced showing. A five-time stakes winner, the Ontario-bred colt was twice Grade-1 placed on the turf in his juvenile campaign, and he surely has the class to perform well in this particular spot. The gray was a runaway winner in his lone prior run at this trip, and if he is left alone early, then the talented sophomore will be especially dangerous late with Florent Geroux taking the reins.

Dashman, a very good fourth in the Jockey Club Derby (G3) at Aqueduct in his last performance, has never run a bad one on the grass and seems poised to pick up his first stakes victory sooner than later for conditioner Brian Lynch. The colt is a homebred son of Oscar Performance who graduated well at Ellis Park in July and followed that score with a decisive tally in an allowance event at Kentucky Downs two back. He has good positional speed combined with a fine turn of foot, and the bay will get the jump on the deeper closing types with Luis Saez taking the reins.

The Helen Pitts-trained Herchee, second in the Gun Runner S. and third in the Bryan Station in his last two tilts, has won or placed in each of his four career outings, all of which have come on the lawn. The consistently good son of hot sire Twirling Candy was a sharp debut winner on this course on June 30 and makes his reappearance in Louisville for his second run off the short layoff. The Kentucky-bred gelding draws well outside of the pace in the race and will likely stalk the action from the second flight from the opening bell with Edgar Morales in the stirrups.

Expert Pick

An exacta with #1 My Boy Prince on top of #3 Dashman and #8 Herchee in the 2024 Commonwealth Turf Stakes is the Best Bet of the Week.

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