Expert Pick of the Week: 2024 Arlington Million

Aug 08, 2024 John Mucciolo/TwinSpires.com

A compact field of six will traveled 1 1/4 miles over the Colonial Downs turf in Sunday’s $1 million Arlington Million S. (G1). The richest race contested in Virginia is led by Godlphin’s multiple Grade 1 winner Nations Pride, who is the clear one to beat. He is the Expert Pick of the Week.

Trained by Charlie Appleby, the five-year-old son of Teofilo has been a high-level performer for a few years running and could be rounding up to a peak effort in his third attempt of 2024.

The bay was third behind his stable mate in the Man o’ War (G1) to commence his campaign and finished well to be second in the recent Manhattan S. (G1) at Saratoga behind the jaw-dropping Measured Time, who is also from the same barn.

Nations Pride stretches out to 10 furlongs on Sunday, and he has compiled a strong 9-6-2-0 lifetime line at the distance. He is possibly at his best when running over soft or yielding ground, and with a lot of rainfall expected over the weekend, the star could also receive the footing he thrives upon. This barn excels with shippers in general, and the fact that William Buick comes in to ride is an obvious plus, as well.

#6 Talk of the Nation holds off Wadsworth to win the $1 million Gun Runner S. at Kentucky Downs under @jose93_ortiz for trainer Shug McGaughey! 🍀💪

🎥 #TwinSpiresReplay pic.twitter.com/4ZQUnv00eC

— TwinSpires Racing 🏇 (@TwinSpires) September 2, 2023

Talk of the Nation has taken a step forward this season since joining the Pletcher shedrow and could be a danger in his first run at the trip. The dark bay son of Quality Road has been first, second or third in all but one of his lifetime races on the green, and he possesses the early speed to make his own trip despite being outside in the feature, as well. The four-year-old has the pedigree to handle 1 1/4 miles, and if he does so, then he has an upset chance with Jose Ortiz taking the reins.

Shug McGaughey’s Integration is three-for-three on the Colonial lawn led by a decisive win in the 2023 Virginia Derby (G3). The talented colt has held up pretty well in the Grade 1 ranks in the past, and he also had a nice prep when a facile winner of the Million Preview S. last time out. The Quality Road colt lands in a group with some pace in it, so he can surely receive a nice set up to unleash his late burst after saving ground early.

Expert Pick

An exacta with #4 Nations Pride on top of #1 Integration and #6 Talk of the Nation in the 2024 Arlington Million is the Best Bet of the Week.