Expert Pick of the Week: 2023 Rebel Stakes

Feb 23, 2023 John Mucciolo/TwinSpires.com

An excellent field of 11 three-year-old prospects will travel 1 1/16 miles on the Oaklawn Park surface in Saturday’s $1 million Rebel S. (G2). The lucrative contest is a 2023 Road to the Kentucky Derby qualifying tilt and will reward the top five finishers with points on a 50-20-15-10-5 structure.

Trainer Brad Cox has been on a roll in the qualifying tilts this campaign and I will ride the hot hand here. Morning-line choice Verifying comes off of an excellent allowance victory on the oval while making his seasonal debut, and the $775,000 yearling purchase has trained well in the interim. He is the Expert Pick of the Week.

Verifying won at first asking on August 27 at Saratoga as a 3-5 favorite and followed that performance up with a smart runner-up result in the Champagne S. (G1) at Aqueduct on October 1. The colt capped his juvenile season with an unplaced effort in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) at Keeneland.

He then forced the pace and drew off in the stretch in his Oaklawn Park bow Jan. 14, and he has a lot of appeal while making his second run off the layoff. Bred to run long, the bay should have no trouble with the distance on Saturday, and his excellent gate presence will find him well placed from the break from the inner post slot. Florent Geroux has the assignment.

Springboard Mile S. second Giant Mischief, also from the Cox barn, has been first or second in each of his trio lifetime tries to date and appears to be a very nice long-term prospect. Purchased for $475,000 as a yearling, the son of top sire Into Mischief has posted two sharp five-furlong morning moves in succession and will be fit and ready for his first graded attempt in this spot.

Giant Mischief does his best running from off of the early tempo and will have a swift and contested pace to rally into on Saturday. He picks up Irad Ortiz, which is another positive.

Steve Asmussen’s Gun Pilot is two-for-three with a second in his lifetime and exits a fine allowance triumph on the course most recently. The son of Gun Runner proved to be capable of rating off of the speed and kicking for home in his latest performance, and the Three Chimneys homebred is another sophomore who looks to have a very bright future. Ricardo Santana will be in the stirrups.

An exacta with #1 Verifying on top of #5 Giant Mischief and #4 Gun Pilot in the Rebel Stakes is the Best Bet of the Week.