Expert Pick of the Week: 2023 Kentucky Derby

May 02, 2023 John Mucciolo

A
full field of 20 high-quality sophomores will go 1 1/4 miles on the Churchill
Downs main surface in Saturday’s 149th Kentucky Derby (G1). The much
anticipated $3 million Run for the Roses attracted a fantastic group of
three-year-olds in what promises to be a competitive and thrilling first leg of
the Triple Crown.

Of
all of the prep races that have been contested this season, the one performance
that stood out to me most was the Arkansas Derby (G1) effort put in by the Brad
Cox-trained
Angel of Empire (8-1). If the ever-improving colt can move
forward even a little off of that fine display, then I expect him to be the one
to beat in the stretch on Saturday. He is the Expert Pick of the Week.

Angel
of Empire
was a debut winner at
Indiana and then toppled allowance foes at the same venue in his third outing
following an unplaced try on the lawn. The son of Classic Empire kicked off his
three-year-old season with a clear second in the Smarty Jones S. at Oaklawn
Park, which preceded a late-running score in the Risen Star (G2) where he
earned his initial graded stakes win.

In
the Arkansas Derby, the Pennsylvania-bred colt moved to the fore in early
stretch after putting in an eye-catching move approaching the final turn and
kept to his task through the lane en route to a facile score.

The
bay has posted a trio of solid morning drills while galloping out well beneath
the Twin Spires leading up to the Derby, and I envision him making a similar
move that he displayed in his latest run nearing the turn for home on Saturday.
Flavien Prat, who guided the colt home last time out, will be in the stirrups
yet again.

Steve
Asmussen’s
Disarm (30-1) has left a very good impression on me this
campaign and I feel that the son of Gun Runner is coming up to a lifetime-best
effort in Louisville. The Winchell homebred, second in the Louisiana Derby (G2)
and third in the Lexington (G3) in his last two performances, surely gives
the appearance of a colt who will prosper with the stretch out to 1 1/4 miles.
Disarm has given a fine account of himself at Churchill Downs leading up to the
race, and having Joel Rosario in the silks adds to his appeal. 

Expert Pick

An
exacta with
#14 Angel of Empire on
top of
#11 Disarm in the 2023
Kentucky Derby is the Best Bet of the Week.