Expert Pick of the Week: 2022 Kentucky Derby
May 04, 2022
A full field of 20 three-year-olds will travel 1 1/4 miles on the famed Churchill Downs strip in Saturday’s $3 million Kentucky Derby (G1). The 148th Run for the Roses attracted a fantastic field of youngsters in what appears to be a wide-open contest. I have a pair of runners in the cast of particular interest to me, and I have a hard time separating the duo.
The Steve Asmussen-trained Epicenter has done little wrong since his unplaced debut as a juvenile and rates a huge chance as the second choice on the morning-line. By Not This Time, the standout colt has soared through his races at Fair Grounds this season, posting tallies in the Risen Star S. (G2) and Louisiana Derby (G2) in his last pair.
Epicenter has improved his Brisnet Speed figure in each try in 2022 and set a track record while running 1 3/16 miles in his most recent performance. The Kentucky-bred colt has perfect spacing between his races this season and has trained in fine fashion as of late. He can run from on or off the early pace, and with a clean break the Winchell color bearer will always be forwardly placed while saving ground early on.
Joel Rosario, who took the Derby in 2013 with Orb, will be in the silks for a Hall of Fame conditioner who is long overdue a victory in the race.
The other contender that has piqued my interest a great deal is Smile Happy, who was super impressive in taking the 2021 Kentucky Jockey Club S. (G2) at Churchill Downs last November.
Trained by Kenny McPeek, the superb son of Runhappy finished second in both the Bluegrass S. (G1) and Risen Star S. (G2) this campaign, and I believe that he is set for a peak showing on Saturday.
Smile Happy showed a new dimension last time when rating close to the pace at Keeneland, and his versatility will come into play for sure in the bulky field. The Lucky Seven Stable color bearer has a good foundation with four route races to his credit, he thrives beneath the Twin Spires, and he is bred on his dam’s side to excel at classic distances.
The $185,000 yearling purchase is the value of the race at his generous morning-line number (20-1) with Corey Lanerie in the stirrups. And it’s easy for me to root for the Churchill riding legend. He’s due for Derby success.
An exacta box with #3 Epicenter and #5 Smile Happy in the Kentucky Derby is the Best Bet of the Week.
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