Expert Pick of the Week: 2022 Breeders' Cup Juvenile

Nov 04, 2022 Alastair Bull

Not only
does the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) decide champion two-year-old male honors,
it doubles as the most important juvenile prep for the Kentucky Derby. Understandably,
more points are available on the Road to the Kentucky Derby table than for any
other two-year-old race.

Ten horses
face the starter in this year’s Juvenile, with the market dominated by leading
Californian juvenile Cave Rock. He couldn’t have been more impressive in his starts
to date, but I’ve been equally impressed by the East Coast star, Forte. Together,
they form the Expert Pick of the Week.

Cave Rock
hasn’t looked like being beaten as yet. An easy maiden winner on debut, he quickly
graduated to the top level in both the Del Mar Futurity (G1) and the American
Pharoah (G1). In all his starts he’s gone straight to the front and run his
opponents off their feet. From gate four, he will almost certainly be taken to
the front by Juan Hernandez and be very difficult to run down.

However, if
there’s a horse that can run him down, it’s Forte. An easy maiden winner at
Belmont Park, he didn’t show his best in the Sanford (G3) at Saratoga on his
second start. But in two starts since he’s been impressive, reeling in Gulfport
in the Hopeful (G1) back at Saratoga before doing the same to the talented
Loggins in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) at Keeneland.

Newgate, a
stable companion of Cave Rock, provides a useful measuring stick; he was 10 1/2
lengths behind Cave Rock in the Del Mar Futurity, and then 7 1/4 lengths behind
Forte in the Breeders’ Futurity. That 3 1/4 length difference suggests it’s definitely
advantage Cave Rock, but not to the level to suggest to me that Forte has no chance, especially considering how quickly Forte pulled away from Newgate in the Keeneland stretch.

The best option
may be to take the two horses in exactas, with the one featuring Cave Rock on
top played for a larger stake than the one with Forte to finish first.

Expert Pick

Two
exactas: one with #4 Forte on top of #3 Cave Rock, and another with Cave Rock
on top of Forte for three times the value of the other, in the Breeders’ Cup
Juvenile is the Best Bet of the Week.