Expert Pick of the Week: 2022 Arlington Million

Aug 10, 2022 John Mucciolo/TwinSpires.com

A strong field of nine will travel 1 1/8 miles on the Churchill Downs lawn in
Saturday's finale, the $1 million Arlington Million (G1). The cast features a
pair of Grade 1 winners, but I expect another contender to get the job done and
to pick up his first win at the highest level of racing.

Grade 2 victor Set Piece has won 10 of his 21 career starts to date,
including four of five on the green at Churchill Downs. The gelding possesses
the best turn of foot in a field with legitimate early speed signed on, and he
is well drawn on the rail to receive a good voyage, as well. Conditioned by the
ever-dangerous Brad Cox, the Juddmonte homebred is the Expert Pick of the Week.

By Dansili, the six-year-old won a trio of stakes events in succession at
this venue in 2021, capped by a fine tally in the Wise Dan (G2). The one-run
closer is rounding into his best form this campaign, as he recorded an excellent
win in the Dinner Party (G2) at Pimlico two back, which preceded a fifth-place
result when he endured a troubled trip in the Forbidden Apple (G3) at Saratoga
in his latest venture. British-bred dark bay stretches out to nine panels on
Saturday, which I view as a positive, and he comes in with a scorching bullet
drill on the lawn at the Oklahoma training track in Saratoga.

Set Piece will be unhurried in the early stages of the Arlington Million and
saving ground behind what is expected to be a fairly lively tempo into the first
turn. The talented performer will begin to accelerate approaching the turn for
home, prior to being asked for his best and running down his foes inside the
final furlong. Regular rider Florent Geroux being in the silks once again is an
obvious plus.

Grade 1 winners Smooth Like Strait and Santin each boast fine credentials,
but I think that the aforementioned duo could be vulnerable in this spot.

Expert Pick of the Week

#1 Set Piece winning the Arlington Million is the Best Bet of the Week.