Expert Pick of the Week: 2021 Kentucky Derby

Apr 28, 2021 John Mucciolo/TwinSpires.com

A full field of 20 sophomores will go postward in Saturday’s $3 million Kentucky Derby (G1) at Churchill Downs. The 147th running of the Run for the Roses is led by unbeaten champion #14 Essential Quality (2-1), but the exquisite son of Tapit is far from a cinch in the deep and accomplished cast. And it’s the ‘other’ gray in the race that I will tab for the upset beneath the Twin Spires.

Live Oak’s #19 Soup and Sandwich (30-1) is light on seasoning but long on talent for conditioner Mark Casse. The rapidly improving three-year-old has as much room as any contender in the field to move forward on Saturday, and he is the Expert Pick of the Week.

Soup and Sandwich debuted against Florida-bred runners at Gulfstream Park on Jan. 28 and aired at first asking by 7 1/4 lengths while being geared down late. A facile allowance win at Tampa Bay Downs followed, which led to his initial stakes try in the Florida Derby (G1) on March 27.

At Gulfstream Park, the 12-1 outsider reached the lead on the backside and held that edge to the stretch, where he was passed but stayed on gamely to be a clear second. The son of Into Mischief finished three lengths ahead of multiple graded winner Greatest Honour on the day, and that colt would have been my top Derby selection had he been in the field.

The striking gray has a long stride combined with ample early foot, and I fully believe that drawing so wide is actually a benefit to the colt. Soup and Sandwich has shown greenness in each of his three career assignments, and being parked on the outside will aid the lightly raced sophomore in his biggest assignment to date. The Florida-bred, who has posted hefty Brisnet Late Pace figures in each lifetime performance, will track the pace while always in range and in the clear with Tyler Gaffalione accepting the mount.

I like a pair of contenders in particular to complete the exacta. Essential Quality is 5-for-5 while showing improvement in 2021 for conditioner Brad Cox. The son of Tapit is versatile, fit, and he likes the Churchill Downs strip, as well. He looms large as the obvious one to beat.

Steve Asmussen’s #10 Midnight Bourbon (20-1) has been a handful at Churchill Downs this week, but he is training in lights-out fashion in preparation for the Derby. The Grade 3 winner is especially consistent, and the feeling from this corner is that he will be primed for a career-best effort on Saturday.

An exacta with Soup and Sandwich on top of Essential Quality and Midnight Bourbon is the Best Bet of the Week.