European Road: Capulet favored in Royal Lodge
Sep 28, 2023
Saturday’s Royal Lodge (G2) at Newmarket features a son of unbeaten 2018 Triple Crown champion Justify, Capulet, who ranks as the early favorite for trainer Aidan O’Brien. But Godolphin’s Aablan has an American classic connection too, as a grandson of 2007 Kentucky Derby (G1) runner-up Hard Spun. That makes for an intriguing angle to watch in the Royal Lodge, a scoring race on the European Road worth points on a 10-5-3-2-1 basis to the top five finishers.
Capulet is proven going a mile, although both of his races have come around a turn, and now he’ll be tackling that distance on a straightway. After winning on debut over the Polytrack at Dundalk, he nearly pulled a front-running upset of highly-regarded stablemate Diego Velazquez in the Champions Juvenile (G2) at Leopardstown. Note that the fourth-placer, Deepone, came back to win the European Road opener in the Beresford (G2). Capulet will try to furnish another form boost on Saturday with high-profile rider Ryan Moore taking over.
Unbeaten Aablan has yet to try a mile, but his performances at seven furlongs suggest that the extra furlong can only help. By leading sire Dubawi and out of the multiple Grade 2-winning Hard Spun mare Promising Run, the Charlie Appleby pupil just got up in the Solario (G3) at Sandown. James Doyle retains the mount.
The Royal Lodge, also a 'Win and You're In' for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (G1), is brimming with promising juveniles from other yards as well. The Roger Varian pair of Al Musmak and Defiance, both coming off wins, renew rivalry with the colts who chased them home. Al Musmak had the benefit of added experience when beating Macduff in the Ascendant S. at Haydock last out. Macduff, a Juddmonte homebred by the great Sea the Stars, could be a different proposition in the rematch.
Another Sea the Stars colt, Caviar Heights, was just mugged by Defiance in a Sandown maiden before graduating himself at Goodwood. First-time starter Defiance had overcame trouble, however, to upstage Caviar Heights that day, and could have even more to offer here.
The Clive Cox-trained Ghostwriter brings a 2-for-2 record into his stakes debut. Like Aablan, he’s venturing beyond seven furlongs for the first time. If his pedigree offers hope, it remains to be seen if the early-pace type is as effective as most of his rivals at the trip.
Once-raced maiden At Vimeiro has a sneaky look after rallying for fifth in a potentially key Doncaster maiden. The third son of Sea the Stars in the line-up, the Jane Chapple-Hyam trainee is out of German highweight Amorella. He also gets an eye-catching rider change to Christophe Soumillon.
At the opposite end of the spectrum is Son, who looks exposed by now with five starts under his belt. Yet his freshman sire, Too Darn Hot, is living up to his name with progeny excelling over further as the season progresses. Son turned in his best stakes effort so far when third in the Stonehenge S. in his most recent outing, and first at a mile.
The Royal Lodge is the first race (8:50 a.m. ET) on a blockbuster day at Newmarket, and you can watch and wager at TwinSpires.com.
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