Disarm seeks Derby berth in Lexington

Apr 12, 2023 James Scully/TwinSpires.com

The final qualifier in the Road to
the Kentucky Derby series, Saturday’s Lexington S. (G3) at
Keeneland awards points on a 20-8-6-4-2 basis, and the 1 1/16-mile race is
the last chance to earn a Kentucky Derby berth for one runner in the 11-horse
field.

Here are the three talking points for
the 1 1/16-mile Lexington.

1. Disarm needs
first or second to guarantee Derby spot

Currently ranked 26th on the
Kentucky Derby leaderboard, Disarm
will move into the top 20 by finishing first or second in the Lexington. Steve
Asmussen trains the progressing three-year-old colt, and Jose Ortiz picks up
the mount on the projected favorite.

In previous years, Disarm wouldn’t need to compete in the
Lexington. The chestnut son of Gun Runner picked 40 points recording a respectable
second in his stakes debut, the March 26 Louisiana Derby (G2) at Fair Grounds, and
40 points has always been enough to make the 20-horse Kentucky Derby field
since the points system was implemented in 2013.

Point totals are greater this year, and 45 points is the
current threshold for the main body of the field. And only two of the four
horses with 45 points are in presently, gaining their spot via the tiebreaker
of non-restricted stakes earnings.

Disarm currently ranks 26th, needing six defections to make
the starting gate. The 8 points for a runner-up finish in the Lexington would make
him Derby eligible, moving to 18th on the list.

A maiden winner in his second start last August, Disarm wasn’t
seen again until mid-February, returning with a second in an Oaklawn allowance,
and he moved forward when overcoming trouble in the Louisiana Derby, finishing a
clear second to a classy foe who had everything his own way on a slow lead.

2. Last-out
maiden winners Empirestrikesfast, First Mission merit respect

Empirestrikesfast,
an Empire Maker gelding trained by Bill Mott, showed speed from the start and
dug in gamely when challenged to break his maiden at first asking in a 1 1/16-mile
maiden race at Gulfstream Park on March 11. The race came back fast, as
Empirestrikesfast registered a 99 Brisnet Speed rating that tops all Lexington
competitors, and the dark bay was flattered when runner-up Dreamlike came back
to finish a close third as the second choice in the Wood Memorial (G2) at
Aqueduct.

First Mission missed
by a nose to a next-out allowance winner when making his career debut at six
furlongs, and he impressively stretched out to two turns to graduate by a 6
3/4-length margin on March 18. The Brad Cox-trained colt figures to be
prominent from the start with Luis Saez.

3. Arabian
Lion invades from California

Arabian Lion has always been well-regarded, an odds-on
favorite in his first three career starts, but he’s seeking to get back on
track for Bob Baffert following a pair of unplaced efforts versus stakes
rivals. The chestnut son Justify adds blinkers, his numbers are top-notch, and
Arabian Lion will show speed from far outside post with Irad Ortiz Jr.