Burning questions in San Felipe, Fountain of Youth, Gotham

Feb 27, 2025 Kellie Reilly/Brisnet.com

Barnes romps in the San Vicente

Barnes romps in the San Vicente (Photo by Benoit Photo)

Saturday’s trio of Kentucky Derby (G1) preps will help to clarify the picture two months ahead of the first Saturday in May.

Tests of distance and class are common themes across the San Felipe (G2), Fountain of Youth (G2), and Gotham (G3), but the results could also boost the stock of horses who aren’t running this weekend.

Here are my burning questions that only the contenders themselves can answer:

San Felipe (G2) at Santa Anita

Will Barnes retain Derby favoritism?

Undefeated Barnes has closed as the individual favorite in the past three pools of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager, despite never having raced around two turns. The Bob Baffert pupil will try to carry his blazing speed over 1 1/16 miles for the first time in the San Felipe. If he wins again impressively, Barnes could consolidate his status as the early Derby favorite. But if he cuts it close or gets upset, the betting landscape will shift markedly.

Can Rodriguez compliment Citizen Bull?

Fellow Baffert trainee Rodriguez is already proven over a route of ground. The son of 2020 Derby hero Authentic crushed a one-mile Santa Anita maiden before placing second in the Robert B. Lewis (G3) to stablemate Citizen Bull, the reigning divisional champion. Citizen Bull, last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) winner, is skipping Saturday’s race to await the Santa Anita Derby (G1). If Rodriguez runs very well, he would pay Citizen Bull a compliment in absentia.

Might Journalism upstage Baffert again?

But the Baffert brigade has a serious opponent in Journalism from the Michael McCarthy barn. A well-bred colt by Hall of Famer Curlin, Journalism was last seen dominating the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2). He beat a couple of high-profile Baffert runners that day, Getaway Car and odds-on favorite Gaming. Getaway Car has since come back to win the Sunland Derby, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if Journalism upstages Baffert again.

Fountain of Youth (G2) at Gulfstream Park

Will Burnham Square turn the double?

Burnham Square burst onto the Derby scene with a rallying victory in the Holy Bull (G3) over the same 1 1/16-mile trip at Gulfstream Park. The gelding is now 2-for-2 since adding blinkers, and he promises to keep improving for trainer Ian Wilkes. But he’ll probably need to progress because the competition is getting deeper. Only three horses have turned the Holy Bull/Fountain of Youth double – Booklet (2002), Mohaymen (2016), and Greatest Honour (2021).

Can comebacker Sovereignty get rolling in time?

The Bill Mott-trained Sovereignty stamped himself as a Derby contender in last fall’s Street Sense (G3) at Churchill Downs, where he exploded from last to break his maiden by five lengths in stakes-record time. But that breakthrough came in his third start of the season. If the pattern holds, the Godolphin blueblood will need this race as a tightener, and we might not see the best of him until later on the trail. For that reason, it would be a very encouraging sign if Sovereignty can go close in his Saturday comeback, especially at a track that may not play to his strengths.

How will River Thames handle the stretch-out?

Several intriguing contenders have competed exclusively in sprints so far, and their stamina will be tested in the Fountain of Youth. Two are trained by Todd Pletcher – morning-line favorite River Thames, who has romped in his two starts by a combined margin of more than 11 lengths, and Gate to Wire, a five-length winner of the Swale S. in his first try on dirt. Gate to Wire arguably has a stronger pedigree to stretch out, thanks to his maternal side. Keep It Easy, dominant in Churchill’s Ed Brown S. in his juvenile finale for Dale Romans, likewise has pedigree claims to prosper over further.

Might Neoequos flatter the sidelined Rated by Merit?

Neoequos is yet another tackling a route of ground, but the Saffie Joseph Jr. runner faces the additional question of venturing beyond state-restricted company. The Florida-bred played second fiddle to unbeaten Rated by Merit in two divisions of the Florida Sire S. last fall. Rated by Merit was expected to make a splash on the Derby trail, only to encounter a setback that’s put him on the sidelines. If Neoequos outperforms his 10-1 odds here, it will conjure up more what-might-have-beens regarding Rated by Merit.

Gotham (G3) at Aqueduct

Will the Gotham go to a New York-bred?

The top two choices on the morning line, Sand Devil and Sacrosanct, are both New York-breds who bring perfect records into their debut versus open company. Both have won going around Aqueduct’s one-turn mile, so this isn’t much of a distance test in itself. Still, Sand Devil sports a pedigree more enticing for the Derby trail, and the Linda Rice trainee might outlast Brad Cox’s Sacrosanct. Fellow New York-bred Calling Card has lost on the road at Oaklawn Park and Fair Grounds, but he previously demolished a course-and-distance maiden by 17 lengths, and now the Mike Maker pupil adds blinkers.

Can Scorching adapt to dirt?

Scorching has raced only on Tapeta and turf at Woodbine, but his pedigree screams surface versatility. By the Uncle Mo stallion Mo Town, winner of the 2016 Remsen (G2) on the Aqueduct dirt as well as the 2017 Hollywood Derby (G1) on turf, Scorching is out of a mare who won on both synthetic and dirt. If he transfers his game here, the Ontario-bred looms as a viable longshot at 10-1.

Who might improve over the added ground?

While the step up from a sprint to a one-turn mile is a gradual one, it can still pinpoint aptitudes. Juddmonte homebred Garamond should thrive at a mile, but don’t overlook the 30-1 Pagode from the Paulo Lobo barn. By Constitution and out of a stamina-laden Argentine mare, he did well to win first time out sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs on the Turfway Park Tapeta. Pagode might take the biggest step forward with the added ground.

Will Thorpedo Anna’s half-brother make her proud?

McAfee ordinarily wouldn’t have the resume to prompt a burning question. But as a half-brother to Horse of the Year Thorpedo Anna, he naturally bears watching. Trainer Rick Dutrow has spoken well of his ability, so he just needs to show it on the class hike in a Derby qualifier.

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