Betting Smarter: Ashley Anderson’s favorite tips for betting horse racing
Apr 18, 2023
Every
horseplayer has a unique way of dissecting a race field and pinpointing a
winner. From pedigree to trainer win percentages, previous race form, or the
“look” of a horse during the post parade, there are a multitude of factors you
can examine to decide
which horse is the right one to bet.
While
there is no one-size-fits-all approach to handicapping, there are a few strategies
I employ regardless of the type of race I’m analyzing, whether it’s a turf
sprint, a two-turn dirt mile, an allowance optional claimer, or a graded
stakes.
Below
are three of my favorite tips for betting horse racing, and, in particular,
while using Brisnet.com past performances.
Class Rating and Race Rating
Brisnet.com
past performances look fairly similar to a traditional racing program, but they
are packed with
a ton of additional information. Two pieces of helpful data
that can be found inside Brisnet PPs are a horse’s Race Rating and Class Rating
for each start.
Labeled
with “RR” in front of the “Racetype” (i.e. a $24,000 maiden special weight or
$100,000 stakes race), the Race Rating measures the quality of competition that
participated in a particular race.
In
contrast, the Class Rating (labeled as “CR”) is listed after the “Racetype” and
indicates how well a particular horse performed against the competition in the race
in question.
For
example:
Let’s
say the Brad Cox-trained
Verifying recorded a 119 Class Rating when running an
$80,000 allowance optional claimer that earned a 115 Race Rating. The data
indicates that Verifying outran his competition, which, in fact, happened, as Verifying
won by 5 1/4 lengths against a field of six in the allowance optional claimer.
Thus, he recorded a Class Rating (119) that was significantly better than the Race
Rating (115) of the field.
You
can compare and contrast
each horse’s Class Ratings in their previous start,
then look to see what type of competition they faced with each Race Rating. You
may find a horse posted a much higher Class Rating in their most recent race compared
to the rest of the field. If that horse ran in a stakes with
a high Race Rating,
you may have just found a winner.
Now,
let’s say the same horse posted a 118 Class Rating but faced a field that
earned a 110 Race Rating. However, one of today’s race rivals recorded a 117
Class Rating against a 116 Race Rating in their previous race. You may want to
side with the latter because
he outran tougher competition in his prior start.
at Prime Power
Another Top Prime Power horses by three full points (3.0+) or Top Prime Power horses by six full points (6.0+) or better Top Prime Power horses by 10 full points (10.0+) or better For example: In the 2000 Kentucky Derby (G1), Fusaichi Pegasus’ Prime Power was 11 points better than the The following year, Prime Power Prime Power can often lead you It’s important In that case,
quick way to look for a win contender with
better score 39% of the time.
score 46% of the time.
score 55% of the time.
next horse in the 19-horse field. Based on Brisnet’s Prime Power research, the
Mr. Prospector colt had a 55% chance of winning the Derby, and the 2.30-1
favorite did in fact cross the finish line first.
proved a powerful tool again, as it identified Monarchos, a 10.50-1 choice, as
the top horse in the field.
to a top horse, but it’s not the only factor you should look at when picking a
winner.
to note what type of race you’re handicapping when using Prime Power. A horse
may have the top Prime Power rating in an upcoming turf race but has won on
dirt in their last three starts. Thus, their Prime Power figure may be highest
among the field, but the horse may not be proven on the surface on which
they’re about to run.
you’ll want to dig deeper into trainer and jockey stats on turf, as well as the
horse’s pedigree, and any past history when running on the grass.
One other
important piece of information that can help you locate a winner with Brisnet
Past Performances is
track bias. At the end of each race page, you will find
these stats listed with runstyle, post bias, and impact values of each. While
you may like a closer (marked with an 'S' in Brisnet Past Performances) in an
upcoming race, the track bias stats may show that early pacesetter (E) types
are winning at a much higher percentage compared to late-running types.
Likewise,
horses running from the rail post may be winning at a higher percentage than
those breaking from the outside.
This data isn’t
the only information you should look at to determine a winner, but it can help
you figure out if you’re leaning in the right direction.
For example: A
horse you like has drawn Post 9, but horses breaking from Post 8 and beyond
have won at a 5% rate this meet. Therefore, your top pick may have a more
difficult time reaching the winner’s circle in this instance.
Or, you may
find an E/P (early/presser) type you like listed at 10-1, and E/P types are winning at a
19% rate this meet. Thus, you have all the more reason to back the longshot in
their upcoming race.
RELATED: Learn more in our free Training to Win education series by TwinSpires racing experts
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