Betting Smarter: Ashley Anderson’s 3 tips for betting your first Pick 3

Apr 23, 2023 Ashley Anderson/TwinSpires.com

Picking
the winner in a race can be difficult enough when the field is large and evenly
matched, but selecting the winner across multiple consecutive races is a whole
other challenge.

However,
a horizontal wager — or a bet made across more than one race — can be
a lucrative and rewarding endeavor. Payouts are often higher than if you
were to place and hit an individual win wager on a horse in each of three
races, and the risk can be minimal, if you’re smart about ticket structure.

Below
we provide three tips for wagering your first Pick 3, a bet type in which you
attempt to select the winner of three consecutive horse races.

When
betting a Pick 3, you can choose more than one horse to win a particular “leg”
of the sequence.

For
example: You may think three horses have a chance to win among a nine-horse
field in the first leg of your Pick 3, but you feel confident only one horse in
the next race (leg two) will reach the winner’s circle.

Let’s
say the third race in the sequence (leg 3) also features three runners who
appear capable of crossing the finish line first.

You
could place a Pick 3 wager with three horses in the first leg, one in the
second, and three in the third for a cost of $9 on a Pick 3 with a $1 betting unit.

The
simple formula for calculating the cost of a Pick 3 wager is: 

The cost
of your bet multiplied by the number of horses in the first leg multiplied by the number of
horses in the second leg multiplied by the number of horses in the third leg.

Thus,
a Pick 3 ticket with a $1 unit would cost 3 x 1 x 3 x $1 = $9, based on the
example above.

If
you were to play a second horse in the second leg to increase your chances of
making it through to the final leg, the cost of your ticket would jump to $18 (3 x 2 x 3 x $1 = $18). That’s why many horseplayers look to “single” in a sequence
when they can — or back just one horse in a particular leg that they
believe will beat the rest of the field.

You
could technically single all three legs of a Pick 3 and pay the minimum stake
of the wager, whether 50 cents or $1, but the more horses you include in your
ticket, the better your odds of walking away a winner.

The
downside to playing more horses in your Pick 3 is the increase in ticket cost.

I’ve
seen horseplayers overspend on horizontal wagers in order to cover multiple
outcomes, but then a couple of heavy favorites win, resulting in a payout on
the Pick 3 which is less than the amount the player wagered in the first
place.

If
you find a sequence of three races in which the favorite is likely to triumph
each time, there’s not much point in playing the Pick 3. You’re better off
finding a different sequence where you have a strong opinion on a longer shot
or think the favorite is vulnerable in two of the three legs.

If
you can pinpoint a horse with an opportunity to pull off an upset, your payout
is going to be much higher than if horses at 3-1, 5-2, and 8-5 odds win each of
the three races in question.

Since
horse racing wagering is pari-mutuel in nature, you’re betting against all
other horseplayers in the Pick 3 pool. Many of your fellow horseplayers are
likely to play the favorites, and if all of you hit your Pick 3 wager with
heavy favorites winning the sequence, your share of the prize pool is going to be small.

Ticket
sequence and structure are highly important in Pick 3 wagering, and the best
way to build a winning ticket is to bet with confidence.

If
a maiden special weight comes up in a Pick 3 sequence and you have no idea
which maiden is most likely to win the race, it may be best to skip it and find
a different sequence somewhere else on the card.

Likewise,
you may be playing a track you don’t normally follow, so horizontal wagers may
not be your best bet on that particular day.

Let’s
say you are visiting Gulfstream Park on a Saturday and want in on the action
but haven’t paid attention to the meet leading up to your visit. You may be
better off playing a straight win bet or an exacta on one race in which you
have a strong opinion rather than playing a horizontal wager across multiple
races with horses you know little about.

As
mentioned earlier, it can be difficult enough just to hit a win bet, so picking
three consecutive winners will be all the more challenging.

Set yourself up for success by finding the right sequence of races in which you
feel good about the outcome and build your ticket wisely, singling when possible
and searching for value that other horseplayers may not see.