Best bet for the weekend at Keeneland, October 13

Oct 11, 2018 Dick Powell/TwinSpires.com

There used to be one Daily Double bet each day at racetracks and it involved picking the winners of the first two races of the day. Now, many tracks have Daily Doubles that begin with every race but the last. And it is an unappreciated bet since many bettors are looking for jackpot payoffs. For this weekend’s Best Bet, we are going to go to Keeneland for their Daily Double that begins in RACE 7 on Saturday.

The contest is for high-class maidens and will be run on the dirt at six furlongs. It attracted an overflow field of 14 two-year-olds and looks to be wide open since some looked nice in their previous runs and a couple of colts making their debuts could also be good ones.

EXPLORATIONIST (#5) (4-1) showed high speed in his career debut going five furlongs at Ellis Park for Mark Casse. He went off as the favorite that day so he must have been working well to raise expectations. The son of Pioneerof the Nile, sire of 2015 Triple Crown winner American Pharoah, was purchased for $825,000 as a two-year-old in training this year and will be tough with a race under his belt.

DECLINED (#7) (10-1) is a first-time starter from Mike Maker who has been training extremely well with a trio of five-furlong workouts. His sire has produced an amazing 27 juvenile winners from his first crop to race and his dam won her career debut as well as two stakes races as a two-year-old. Even though Maker is not known for his prowess with his first-time starters, this one looks ready to go.

BOURBON CALLING (#10) (9-2) was a good third in his career debut at Churchill Downs for Ian Wilkes, who hardly ever wins first time out. The fact that the gelding ran so well shows an abundance of natural ability and he should show much improvement in here. I like how Wilkes has worked him real easy since then, which indicates that he has a horse ready to go.

TAPIT WISE (#11) (7-2) is a first-time starter from Tom Amoss, who excels in this spot. The trainer works them hard and, just when you think they are ready to go, Amoss gives them some more works just to make sure. This son of Tapit cost $700,000 as yearling last year and he is out of a dam who has produced four winners from five foals to race, including Wickedly Perfect, who won the 2010 Alcibiades Stakes (G1) on this main track as a two-year-old.

So in RACE 7, we will go with all four horses on our ticket.

In RACE 8, a six-furlong allowance for fillies and mares, I am going to key UPSET BREWING (#7) (7-2). At first glance, she looks like she doesn’t want to win at this level but a closer inspection reveals that is not true.

The three-year-old miss broke her maiden last year in her third try, then posted five of her next 11 losses against stakes company. Throw out when she was tried going a distance of ground and concentrate on her dirt sprints and the focus becomes clearer. Last out, she ran well in a turf sprint at Ellis Park and returns to the dirt 90 days later for Buff Bradley, who does extremely well with the surface switch from turf to dirt. Upset Brewing should be fresh off the layoff and press the pace down the backstretch with Gabe Saez aboard.

WAGER

The bet is Keeneland, RACE 7, Daily Double: #5, 7, 10 and 11 with 7