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Expert Pick of the Week: 2025 Southwest Stakes

Jan 21, 2025 John Mucciolo/TwinSpires.com

Patch Adams wins at Churchill Downs. (Photo by Coady Media)

A talented field of 10 three-year-olds will travel 1 1/16 miles at Oaklawn Park on Saturday in the $1 million Southwest S. (G3). The 2025 Road to the Kentucky Derby challenge series tilt will offer a total of 42 qualifying points (20-10-6-4-2) to the top five finishes of the event.

I was super impressed by the maiden win registered by the Brad Cox-trained Patch Adams on November 30 and will give him top billing in the deep field. Bred in the Bluegrass State, the son of Into Mischief was unveiled at Keeneland on October 11 and disputed a fast pace before ultimately checking in third in a six-furlong heat. In his maiden score, the bay prompted the action three-wide to the top of the lane and exploded through the lane, driving clear to a 10-length romp while producing a swift final time.

Racing Roundtable ep. #71 -- Live Stream @AshleyAnd502, @James_Scully111 & Vance Hanson rates Disco Time's G3 Lecomte victory as well as the performances of both Kentucky Oaks (G1) prep winners from the weekend @fairgroundsnola & the Big-A. https://t.co/otL4DO2erM

— TwinSpires Racing 🏇 (@TwinSpires) January 21, 2025

Patch Adams has posted a handful of morning drills at Payson Park leading up to his stakes bow, with the last trio resulting in bullet moves, and he gives me every impression of a colt who will prosper going two turns going forward, as well. With two or three of his contenders likely forcing the pace in the early stages of the Southwest, I envision the top selection to be tracking the pace to the head of the stretch prior to putting his best foot forward inside the final furlong. Flavien Prat comes in to pilot the top prospect.

Grade 1 winner Gaming ships in from the Golden State for conditioner Bob Baffert and is the one to catch and beat. By Game Winner, the $250,000 purchase finished a good second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) prior to checking in third in the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) in his latest appearance. He has won from on and off of the early tempo to this stage of his development, and I like the quartet of morning drills leading up to his local debut, too. Juan Hernandez comes in to ride.