Study Guide: 2025 Southwest Stakes

Jan 21, 2025 J. Keeler Johnson/TwinSpires.com

Thanks in no small part to its $1 million purse, Saturday’s 1 1/16-mile Southwest (G3) at Oaklawn Park has drawn a strong field to vie for 42 Road to the Kentucky Derby qualification points split 20-10-6-4-2 among the top five finishers.

Let’s take a horse-by-horse look at the entries:

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Gaming

Start(s): 4
Wins: 2
Place: 1
Show: 1

Owner: Karl Watson, Michael E. Pegram, and Paul Weitman
Breeder: Mt Brilliant Farm and Ranch
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: Juan Hernandez

Top Speed Rating: (105) when finishing second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) at Del Mar.
Total Earnings: $589,000

Sire: Game Winner
Dam: So Stylish
Color: Dark bay/brown

With a win in the Del Mar Futurity (G1) and a runner-up finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) under his belt, Gaming is the most decorated horse in the Southwest field. But he’s 0-for-2 racing 1 1/16 miles and exits a subpar third-place finish in the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2), so Gaming needs to show a bit more stamina if he’s going to give trainer Bob Baffert a record-extending seventh Southwest win.

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Publisher

Start(s): 4
Wins: 0
Place: 1
Show: 3

Owner: Gus King and Estate of Brereton C. Jones
Breeder: Brereton C. Jones
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Jockey: Erik Asmussen

Top Speed Rating: (91) when finishing second in an Oaklawn Park maiden special weight.
Total Earnings: $52,756

Sire: American Pharoah
Dam: Indian Pride
Color: Bay

Publisher finished second in a fast 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight at Oaklawn last month, but with a 0-for-4 lifetime record, he’ll need improvement to challenge against tougher competition in the Southwest.

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Monet’s Magic

Start(s): 6
Wins: 2
Place: 0
Show: 1

Owner: Midway Racing 2023
Breeder: Theta Holdings 1
Trainer: Ben Colebrook
Jockey: Francisco Arrieta

Top Speed Rating: (90) when winning a Churchill Downs maiden special weight.
Total Earnings: $170,139

Sire: Good Magic
Dam: Rontos Lily
Color: Dark bay/brown

Monet’s Magic is riding a hot streak, winning a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight at Churchill Downs before taking a one-mile $125,000 allowance optional claimer at Oaklawn. A top-five Southwest finish is within reach for this improving son of 2018 Kentucky Derby runner-up Good Magic.

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Tiztastic

Start(s): 5
Wins: 2
Place: 1
Show: 1

Owner: Winchell Thoroughbreds, Mrs. John Magnier, Michael B. Tabor, and Derrick Smith
Breeder: Capital Bloodstock
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Jockey: Keith Asmussen

Top Speed Rating: (88) when finishing third in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) at Churchill Downs.
Total Earnings: $819,800

Sire: Tiz the Law
Dam: Keesha
Color: Dark bay/brown

Both of Tiztastic’s wins have come on turf, but he’s also shown respectable dirt form on the Road to the Kentucky Derby, placing second in the Street Sense (G3) and third in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2). He’s another entrant with strong credentials for a top-five finish.

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Render Judgment

Start(s): 4
Wins: 1
Place: 1
Show: 1

Owner: Baccari Racing Stable, Dream Walkin Farms, MJM Racing, and Rocket Ship Racing
Breeder: Green Lantern Stables
Trainer: Kenny McPeek
Jockey: Emmanuel Esquivel

Top Speed Rating: (87) when winning a Churchill Downs maiden special weight.
Total Earnings: $109,110

Sire: Blame
Dam: Barbara Gordon
Color: Bay

Fifth in the Kentucky Jockey Club and third in the Smarty Jones S. on the Road to the Kentucky Derby, Render Judgment is consistent but needs to improve upon his career-best 87 Brisnet Speed rating.

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Sandman

Start(s): 5
Wins: 2
Place: 0
Show: 1

Owner: D. J. Stables, St. Elias Stable, West Point Thoroughbreds, and CJ Stables
Breeder: Lothenbach Stables
Trainer: Mark Casse
Jockey: Cristian Torres

Top Speed Rating: (91) when winning an Oaklawn Park $125,000 allowance optional claimer.
Total Earnings: $164,595

Sire: Tapit
Dam: Distorted Music
Color: Gray/roan

Sandman finished a neck behind Tiztastic when third in the Street Sense, then improved to win a one-mile $125,000 allowance optional claimer at Oaklawn Park by 1 3/4 lengths. Sandman ran his final furlong in a terrific :11.98 and looms as a top-three contender even while taking on tougher foes in the Southwest.

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Patch Adams

Start(s): 2
Wins: 1
Place: 0
Show: 1

Owner: CHC and WinStar Farm
Breeder: WinStar Farm
Trainer: Brad Cox
Jockey: Flavien Prat

Top Speed Rating: (102) when winning a Churchill Downs maiden special weight.
Total Earnings: $78,125

Sire: Into Mischief
Dam: Well Humored
Color: Bay

Patch Adams was breathtaking in a seven-furlong maiden special weight at Churchill Downs two months ago, powering away from a large field to dominate by 10 1/2 lengths in the fast time of 1:20.77. That runaway win yielded an impressive 102 Brisnet Speed rating, and strong workouts since then suggest Patch Adams is the horse to beat in the Southwest.

Patch Adams and @flothejock gear down at the wire and win decisively to break his maiden for @bradcoxracing! 🏇 pic.twitter.com/J3ojzSLixl

— Churchill Downs (@ChurchillDowns) November 30, 2024

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American Promise

Start(s): 6
Wins: 1
Place: 1
Show: 1

Owner: BC Stables
Breeder: Candy Meadows
Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas
Jockey: Tyler Bacon

Top Speed Rating: (92) when winning an Oaklawn Park maiden special weight.
Total Earnings: $109,874

Sire: Justify
Dam: Tapella
Color: Chestnut

American Promise lost his first five starts, but stepped forward nicely in a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight at Oaklawn last month, leading all the way to defeat Publisher by 1 1/2 lengths in the strong time of 1:44.81 over a slow, muddy track. If American Promise runs similarly well in the Southwest, a top-five finish isn’t out of the question.

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Bon Temps

Start(s): 3
Wins: 0
Place: 0
Show: 0

Owner: Calumet Farm
Breeder: Calumet Farm
Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas
Jockey: Nik Juarez

Top Speed Rating: (76) when finishing fourth in the Smarty Jones S. at Oaklawn Park.
Total Earnings: $21,398

Sire: Bravazo
Dam: Winning Image
Color: Bay

Bon Temps earned Kentucky Derby qualifying points when finishing fourth in the Smarty Jones S. at Oaklawn, but his career-best 76 Brisnet Speed rating looks a little light against the Southwest field.

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Speed King

Start(s): 2
Wins: 1
Place: 1
Show: 0

Owner: Triton Thoroughbreds
Breeder: Nancy C. Shuford
Trainer: Ron Moquett
Jockey: Rafael Bejarano

Top Speed Rating: (91) when finishing second in the Remington Springboard Mile S. at Remington Park.
Total Earnings: $129,000

Sire: Volatile
Dam: Athenian
Color: Gray/roan

Speed King wired his debut dashing six furlongs at Churchill Downs, then stayed on after a speed duel to finish second in the Remington Springboard Mile S., beaten only half a length by next-out Smarty Jones S. winner Coal Battle. Speed King brings plenty of early speed to the Southwest, and his chances of cracking the top five shouldn’t be underestimated.