Expert Pick of the Week: 2024 Gun Runner Stakes

Dec 17, 2024 John Mucciolo/TwinSpires.com

A compact field of five freshmen will go 1 1/16 miles over the Fair Grounds dirt in Saturday’s $125,000 Gun Runner S. The 2025 Road to the Kentucky Derby challenge series tilt will offer a total of 21 qualifying points to the top five across the wire.

Albaugh Family Stables’ Admiral Dennis draws outside in the small cast and looks like the one to beat in his stakes bow. He is the Expert Pick of the Week.

Trained by Brad Cox, the son of Constitution brought $425,000 as a yearling and made his debut at Churchill Downs on September 19 in a 6 1/2-furlong maiden special weight heat. Sent postward as the 5-2 favorite in the field of 11, the colt was always near the pace but endured traffic in the contest and finished a commendable third despite a less-than-ideal voyage. He stretched out in distance second time out on November 7 and aced a one-mile test beneath the Twin Spires, driving home a strong, 3 ½-length winner while displaying a healthy finishing kick.

The chestnut has come back with a trio of morning moves at Fair Grounds following that triumph, and I expect him to thrive in his initial try going two turns. Luis Saez retains the mount and will have this nice prospect in range from the break while tracking a moderate tempo from third.

2yo Admiral Dennis is bred by @WinStarFarm and owned by @Albaughstables, who has owned or co-owned half a dozen #KYDerby starters, including 2023 3rd-place finisher Angel of Empire.

Learn more in @J_Keelerman 's KY Derby maiden watch:👇 https://t.co/S7DQbDvTbL pic.twitter.com/zfaKFVhmhZ

— TwinSpires Racing 🏇 (@TwinSpires) November 11, 2024

Render Judgement displayed a solid turn of foot in his first pair of assignments, with a runner-up showing on debut and a smart tally second out, prior to failing to make an impact in the Kentucky Jockey Club S. (G2) in his most recent showing. The $310,000 son of Blame didn’t have a pace to run at in the deep field most recently, and this spot seems more sensible for him at this stage of his development for conditioner Kenny McPeek. Render Judgement will save ground while behind the cast to the top of the lane with Brian Hernandez, Jr. in the stirrups.

Magnitude is two-for-four for Asmussen which includes a solid allowance win at Churchill Downs in his latest endeavor. The Not This Time colt was alert early and strong late in his latest score and comes into this event with a trio of positive workouts on the Fair Grounds strip, as well. Jose Ortiz picks up the mount atop the Bay colt.

Expert Pick

An exacta with #5 Admiral Dennis on top of #2 Render Judgement and #3 Magnitude in the 2024 Gun Runner Stakes is the Best Bet of the Week.