Expert Pick of the Week: 2024 Belmont Stakes

Jun 04, 2024 John Mucciolo/TwinSpires.com

A fantastic field of 10 sophomores will run 1 1/4 miles on the Saratoga main oval in Saturday’s $2 million Belmont S. (G1). The third leg of the Triple Crown attracted the winners of the first pair of Classic races this season, Mystik Dan and Seize the Grey, but I feel that a different three-year-old will make good in this unique running of the Belmont.

Blue Grass S. (G1) winner Sierra Leone came especially close to achieving glory in Louisville five weeks ago when a nose second in the Run for the Roses. The $2.3 million yearling purchase was away slowly and didn’t endure the cleanest of trips on the Churchill Downs surface, but he is an immense talent and seems poised for success in his local debut.

The son of Gun Runner is a pair of noses from being unbeaten from five lifetime races to date, and the dark bay possesses arguably the best late kick in the field, as well. He is proven at the distance, has room to improve while making his third start since February, and also gets a jockey change to the superb Flavien Prat, too.

Next stop: Kentucky Derby for SIERRA LEONE! 🌹

SIERRA LEONE takes the G1 Blue Grass S. at Keeneland! 🏆 @tyler_gaff pic.twitter.com/ai6eaHtBNM

— TwinSpires Racing 🏇 (@TwinSpires) April 6, 2024

I’m still not sure if Resilience wants to run 10 panels, but the much-improved colt is a dangerous commodity in the cast at a nice price. Trained by Bill Mott, the Into Mischief colt has a draw near the rail with speed to his inside, and I expect the tactical Kentucky-bred to get an ideal trip while saving ground tucked in behind the early pace to the top of the lane on Saturday. The Wood Memorial S. (G2) star put in a fast four-furlong move on the Oklahoma training course on Sunday and will have regular pilot Junior Alvarado riding.

Grade 2 winner Honor Marie lost all chance in the Derby when getting away last and rates a solid chance with a cleaner voyage for Whitworth Beckman. The bay son of Honor Code, who was a fast-closing second in the Louisiana Derby (G2) two back, has reportedly trained in nice fashion in advance of the Belmont, and he might get a healthy tempo to rally into late, as well. Honor Marie gets a rider upgrade to Florent Geroux and will be making one run late.

Expert Pick

An exacta with #9 Sierra Leone on top of #2 Resilience and #8 Honor Marie in the 2024 Belmont Stakes is the Best Bet of the Week.