Expert Pick of the Week: 2024 Mamzelle Stakes

May 08, 2024 John Mucciolo/TwinSpires.com

An overflow field of 18 sophomore fillies will dash 5 1/2 furlongs on the Churchill Downs lawn in Saturday’s $225,000 Mamzelle S. The cast features multiple talented runners, but I will focus on just two to settle things down the lane.

The Kelsey Danner-trained Nice as Pie has been a dominant force in 2024 with four wins from as many tries by a combined 16 1/2 lengths. By Tapiture, the homebred exits facile tallies in the Valdale S. and Serena’s Song S. most recently, and the synthetic standout seems poised to give a fine account of herself while making her turf debut.

Nice as Pie possesses a powerful turn of foot that has found her to be untouchable leading up to this affair, and I feel that it is a positive sign that her half-brother Smokin’ Jay was a very solid turf dasher who bagged the 2021 Allied Forces S. on the Belmont Park turf, as well. The bay smoked a bullet four panels in preparation for her local bow and will have regular pilot Adam Beschizza in the controls. She will be unhurried while saving ground in the early stages of the feature.

#5 Nice as Pie remains perfect over the Florence oval as she impressively wins the Valdale S. @turfwaypark for trainer Kelsey Danner with @abeschizza aboard! 🥧

A filly you will want to add to your TwinSpires #StableAlerts if you haven't already done so!

🎥 #TwinSpiresReplay pic.twitter.com/vNobbl2HQE

— TwinSpires Racing 🏇 (@TwinSpires) February 11, 2024

Graham Motion’s Toupie picked up a black-type win while sprinting on the green at Aqueduct as a juvenile and runs for a conditioner who is excellent off of the layoff. The dark bay daughter of Uncle Mo, who was runner-up to No Nay Mets in her second lifetime appearance, owns the tactical speed to stay in range early as well as the closing punch to put her foes away late.

Toupie’s lone subpar showing came while going a route of ground on the lawn with Grade 2 company, and she is surely better as a one-turn filly at this stage of her development. I envision the lass to be stalking a respectable early pace to the top of the lane before moving into contention inside the final furlong with Jorge Ruiz in the silks.

Expert Pick

An exacta box with #2 Nice as Pie and #9 Toupie in the 2024 Mamzelle Stakes is the Best Bet of the Week.