Fierceness favored in Florida Derby over Conquest Warrior, Hades

Mar 25, 2024 Kellie Reilly/Brisnet.com

Last year’s champion two-year-old colt Fierceness was overturned by Hades in the Feb. 3 Holy Bull (G3), but the betting public is expected to send him off as the favorite again in Saturday’s $1 million Florida Derby (G1). The culmination of Gulfstream Park’s Road to the Kentucky Derby, the 1 1/8-mile contest awards points to the top five finishers on a 100-50-25-15-10 basis.

Fierceness, the 8-5 choice on the Florida Derby morning line, has a precedent for bouncing back from a loss. Seventh as the favorite in the Oct. 7 Champagne (G1) after a troubled start, the Todd Pletcher runner rebounded as a 16-1 shot in his convincing Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) victory. Fierceness was next seen in the Holy Bull, where another sort of trouble at the break may have contributed to his subpar third. The Repole Stable homebred has been training like a colt poised to deliver a much stronger performance, albeit from a wider than ideal draw in post 10 of 11.

Pletcher, a record seven-time Florida Derby winner, noted that champion Forte overcame an outside post here a year ago.

“Normally I’d be afraid of the outside post, but Forte won from the 11 last year, so you can overcome that,” Pletcher told track publicity.

“Everybody knows Gulfstream two-turn races are very tricky, and I think that’s why the start is so important, getting away cleanly. I think what happens in a lot of these two-turn races is the jockeys are so conscious of having to get to the first turn in good position that it can get a little rough leaving the gate sometimes.”

Hades passed his stakes and two-turn test in the Holy Bull, rebuffing a challenge from Fierceness to extend his record to 3-for-3. But the Joe Orseno pupil had the advantage through a slow early pace, and the race dynamic is likely to be different. Still, Hades isn’t one-dimensional, and the 7-2 chance will save ground throughout from post 2.

HADES wins The Holy Bull defeating the favorite Fierceness and earns 20 points on the Road to the #KyDerby! 🌹 pic.twitter.com/VcuxPop1M3

— Kentucky Derby (@KentuckyDerby) February 3, 2024

Conquest Warrior has been installed as the 3-1 second choice on the morning line, on the strength of his impressive allowance score over this track and trip on March 1. Indeed, his five-length jaunt prompted a question about what he might have done in the next day’s Fountain of Youth (G2). By City of Light, the same sire as Fierceness, Conquest Warrior has now won two straight for Shug McGaughey. His previous maiden win drew rave reviews, considering how he shrugged off repeated trouble to prevail.

Fountain of Youth winner Dornoch is bound for the Blue Grass (G1), but the respective second through fourth behind him – Le Dom Bro, Frankie’s Empire, and Real Macho – renew rivalry. The depth of the form is uncertain, though, since the Fountain of Youth was reduced by a flurry of scratches.

The Tampa Bay Derby (G3) is represented by Grand Mo the First, who just missed in a tight finish in third. Seminole Chief, winner of the In Reality division of the Florida Sire S., was a too-bad-to-be-true ninth in the Withers (G3) in his only previous attempt at Derby points.

Bail Us Out, a stablemate of Fierceness, steps up from a Feb. 3 maiden win over the Gulfstream Tapeta surface. Catalytic takes a class and distance hike after placing second in a Tampa sprint allowance, and recent turf maiden winner Iris’s Dream also gets thrown into a challenging spot here.

Post time for the Florida Derby, the 14th and final race on the stakes-laden program, is 6:42 p.m. (ET). You can watch and wager on all the action, including the Gulfstream Park Oaks (G2) on the Road to the Kentucky Oaks, at TwinSpires.com.