Takeaways from 2024 Gotham

Mar 05, 2024 James Scully

The third of four qualifiers at Aqueduct this year, the March 2 Gotham (G3) was contested over a one-turn mile and offered points on a 50-25-15-10-5 scale as part of the Road to the Kentucky Derby series. Aqueduct’s major qualifier for the 150th running of the Kentucky Derby (G1), the $700,000 Wood Memorial (G2), will take place on April 6.

Here are three takeaways from the Gotham.

Deterministic emerges as serious contender with strong comeback win

He’s yet to try two turns and would have only three starts if he makes the Kentucky Derby, but Deterministic looked the part of a serious three-year-old when smartly winning the Gotham off a seven-month layoff.

The Christophe Clement-trained colt flashed talent in a Saratoga maiden special weight last summer, overcoming a dreadful break and a wide trip to narrowly prevail in a fast time, and Deterministic wasn’t unprepared for the start the second time out, displaying tactical ability while stalking within a couple of lengths of the early Gotham pace. The 7-2 second choice appeared to be racing over the slower part of the sloppy track along the backstretch, taking plenty of kickback while saving ground behind rivals before angling wide on the far turn.

Deterministic found his best stride after straightening for home, utilizing a bold turn of foot to split rivals in midstretch and surge clear, and the dark bay son of Liam’s Map finished full of run, scoring by a two-length margin.

He registered a 99 Brisnet Speed rating, a good number to keep building upon, and distance is the real question in this observer’s eyes. Deterministic appears built for two turns and his female family is geared toward stamina, but the promising colt still must prove it.

I came away bullish on Deterministic, who will likely point for the Wood Memorial.

Clement aiming for first Derby starter

A nominee for the National Museum of Racing Thoroughbred Hall of Fame, Christophe Clement has been training in America for 30+ years and captured the 2014 Belmont (G1) with Tonalist, but the French-born trainer has yet to run a horse in the Kentucky Derby. That may change with Deterministic, and Kentucky Derby experience has meant little when it comes to training a winner.

Since 2000, 10 trainers have won the Kentucky Derby in their first attempt – Eric Reed (2022), Brad Cox (2021), Art Sherman (2014), Chip Woolley (2009), Rick Dutrow (2008), Michael Matz (2006), John Shirreffs (2005), John Servis (2004), Barclay Tagg (2003), and Neil Drysdale (2000).

Fine second from Just a Touch

The Gotham hasn’t produced a Kentucky Derby winner since Secretariat in 1973, but this year’s edition featured more depth than usual due to a pair of up-and-coming types making their first stakes attempt, Deterministic and Just a Touch.

Despite the setback, Just a Touch remains very intriguing. The 7-10 favorite traveled extremely wide off the far turn and appeared to be running in place momentarily, but Just a Touch finally leveled off until deep stretch, offering a fine late kick while never a threat to the winner.

The Cox-trained Justify colt has shown good positional speed in a pair of one-turn starts, but two-turn distances probably will be his best game. It’s easy to envision Just a Touch continuing to improve with experience and distance.