Study Guide: 2023 Kentucky Oaks
May 03, 2023
By J. Keeler Johnson
A deep and competitive field has assembled for Friday's $1.25 million Kentucky Oaks (G1) at Churchill Downs.
The 149th running of the 1 1/8-mile race has drawn 17 entries, including three also-eligibles. Flashy stakes winners Wet Paint, Botanical, and Southlawn (all unbeaten this year) rank as the three favorites, but there are many other viable contenders in the mix.
Let's meet the full field:
| Total 5 start(s) | Top Speed Rating: N/A |
| Wins: 3 | Total Earnings: $212,700 |
| Place: 0 | |
| Show: |
| Owner: Godolphin, lessee | Sire: City of Light |
| Breeder: Woodford Thoroughbreds | Dam: Rite Moment |
| Trainer: Salem bin Ghadayer | Color: Bay |
| Jockey: Mickael Barzalona |
UAE Oaks (G3) winner Mimi Kakushi has won three straight in Dubai, but is stepping up in class for the Kentucky Oaks (G1) and must prove she can handle this level of competition.
| Total 6 start(s) | Top Speed Rating: (93) when winning the Silverbulletday S. at Fair Grounds. |
| Wins: 2 | Total Earnings: $190,528 |
| Place: 1 | |
| Show: 2 |
| Owner: Dawn and Ike Thrash | Sire: Connect |
| Breeder: G. Watts Humphrey Jr. | Dam: Foul Play |
| Trainer: Brad Cox | Color: Bay |
| Jockey: Javier Castellano |
The Alys Look is versatile in terms of running style and won the Silverbulletday S. during the winter, but a distant third-place finish in the Fair Grounds Oaks (G2) suggests she needs to improve to factor on Friday.
| Total 9 start(s) | Top Speed Rating: (98) when finishing second in the Gazelle (G3) at Aqueduct. |
| Wins: 2 | Total Earnings: $257,410 |
| Place: 2 | |
| Show: 2 |
| Owner: Repole Stable | Sire: Dialed In |
| Breeder: Gallagher's Stud | Dam: Tulipmania |
| Trainer: Todd Pletcher | Color: Bay |
| Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr. |
A top-four finisher in four consecutive Road to the Kentucky Oaks prep races, Gambling Girl exits a close runner-up effort in the Gazelle (G3). She rallied well from behind a slow pace and can’t be counted out of the mix.
| Total 7 start(s) | Top Speed Rating: (91) when winning a Fair Grounds allowance optional claimer. |
| Wins: 3 | Total Earnings: $318,369 |
| Place: 0 | |
| Show: 0 |
| Owner: Robert E. Masterson | Sire: Pioneerof the Nile |
| Breeder: WinStar Farm | Dam: Mo d'Amour |
| Trainer: Norm Casse | Color: Bay |
| Jockey: Reylu Gutierrez |
Southlawn is 2-for-2 this season, most recently rallying to a 3 1/4-length score in the Fair Grounds Oaks (G2). The stoutly bred filly enters off sharp workouts and is a key win threat.
| Total 7 start(s) | Top Speed Rating: (92) when finishing sixth in the Ashland (G1) at Keeneland. |
| Wins: 4 | Total Earnings: $1,578,225 |
| Place: 2 | |
| Show: 0 |
| Owner: D. J. Stable | Sire: Into Mischief |
| Breeder: Three Chimneys Farm and Clearsky Farms | Dam: Wonder Gal |
| Trainer: Mark Casse | Color: Dark bay/brown |
| Jockey: Joel Rosario |
Last year’s champion two-year-old filly has struggled a bit this season and exits a sixth-place finish in the Ashland (G1). She’ll need a rebound to challenge in her toughest contest since winning the 2022 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1).
| Total 6 start(s) | Top Speed Rating: (94) when winning the Bourbonette Oaks at Turfway Park. |
| Wins: 4 | Total Earnings: $374,410 |
| Place: 1 | |
| Show: 0 |
| Owner: LNJ Foxwoods and Clearsky Farms | Sire: Medaglia d'Oro |
| Breeder: Clearsky Farms and Godolphin | Dam: Daisy |
| Trainer: Brad Cox | Color: Bay |
| Jockey: Chris Landeros |
Botanical is unbeaten in four starts over the synthetic Tapeta track at Turfway Park, including a 2 1/2-length score in the Bourbonette Oaks. She has lots of speed and looms as a formidable pacesetting threat while trying dirt at Churchill Downs.
| Total 6 start(s) | Top Speed Rating: (94) when winning the Fantasy (G3) at Oaklawn Park. |
| Wins: 4 | Total Earnings: $689,000 |
| Place: 1 | |
| Show: 0 |
| Owner: Godolphin | Sire: Blame |
| Breeder: Godolphin | Dam: Sky Painter |
| Trainer: Brad Cox | Color: Bay |
| Jockey: Flavien Prat |
The expected favorite has unleashed giant homestretch rallies to win the Martha Washington S., Honeybee (G3), and Fantasy (G3) in succession. Wet Paint boasts a strong series of Brisnet Late Pace ratings and is the filly to beat in the Kentucky Oaks.
| Total 4 start(s) | Top Speed Rating: (99) when winning the Gazelle (G3) at Aqueduct. |
| Wins: 2 | Total Earnings: $198,138 |
| Place: 1 | |
| Show: 0 |
| Owner: Hoffman Thoroughbreds, Tom F. McCrocklin, and Medallion Racing | Sire: American Pharoah |
| Breeder: Robert Low and Lawana Low | Dam: Promisedyouheaven |
| Trainer: Raymond Handal | Color: Chestnut |
| Jockey: Jorge A. Vargas Jr. |
Promiseher America has improved by leaps and bounds while stretching out in distance, but benefited from tracking a slow pace when winning the Gazelle (G3). She’ll likely face a quicker pace in the Oaks.
| Total 7 start(s) | Top Speed Rating: (91) when finishing second in the Santa Ysabel (G3) at Santa Anita. |
| Wins: 3 | Total Earnings: $472,800 |
| Place: 2 | |
| Show: 0 |
| Owner: Peter Redekop B. C. | Sire: Arrogate |
| Breeder: Lara Run | Dam: Be Fair |
| Trainer: Peter Miller | Color: Bay |
| Jockey: Ramon Vazquez |
Winner of the Del Mar Debutante (G1) and Chandelier (G2) as a juvenile, And Tell Me Nolies has finished second in both her starts this year, including the Santa Anita Oaks (G2). It’s possible she prefers racing shorter distances than the 1 1/8 miles she’ll tackle at Churchill Downs.
| Total 7 start(s) | Top Speed Rating: (96) when winning the Sunland Park Oaks at Sunland Park. |
| Wins: 4 | Total Earnings: $294,700 |
| Place: 0 | |
| Show: 1 |
| Owner: Brad King, Randy Andrews, Chris G. Coleman, Jim Cone, Suzanne Kirby, and Lee Lewis | Sire: Nyquist |
| Breeder: Liberty Road Stables | Dam: Free Flying Soul |
| Trainer: Todd Fincher | Color: Bay |
| Jockey: Florent Geroux |
Flying Connection is a wildcard after winning four of her last five starts in New Mexico, including the Sunland Park Oaks. Her gate-to-wire Sunland Park Oaks triumph produced a sharp 96 Brisnet Speed rating, suggesting she’s fast enough to factor at Churchill Downs.
| Total 7 start(s) | Top Speed Rating: (98) when winning the Ashland (G1) at Keeneland. |
| Wins: 3 | Total Earnings: $543,688 |
| Place: 0 | |
| Show: 1 |
| Owner: Magdalena Racing, Colette Marie VanMatre, and James Ball | Sire: Cross Traffic |
| Breeder: Colette Marie VanMatre | Dam: Defining Hope |
| Trainer: Kenny McPeek | Color: Gray/roan |
| Jockey: Brian Hernandez Jr. |
Defining Purpose was no match for Wet Paint when third in the Martha Washington and sixth in the Honeybee, but she improved in the Ashland (G1) at Keeneland, springing a 20-1 upset. She’s progressing in the right direction and can’t be counted out of the mix.
| Total 8 start(s) | Top Speed Rating: (94) when winning the Sandpiper S. at Tampa Bay Downs. |
| Wins: 4 | Total Earnings: $339,633 |
| Place: 0 | |
| Show: 1 |
| Owner: John Ropes | Sire: Girvin |
| Breeder: John Ropes | Dam: Hardcore Candy |
| Trainer: Michael Yates | Color: Dark bay/brown |
| Jockey: Luis Saez |
An impressive winner of the Davona Dale (G2) racing a one-turn mile at Gulfstream Park, Dorth Vader hasn’t been as productive in two-turn contests, most recently finishing fourth in the Gulfstream Park Oaks (G2). She’ll need improvement to challenge going two turns at Churchill Downs.
| Total 6 start(s) | Top Speed Rating: (89) when winning the Gulfstream Park Oaks (G2) at Gulfstream Park. |
| Wins: 2 | Total Earnings: $270,568 |
| Place: 1 | |
| Show: 2 |
| Owner: AMO Racing USA | Sire: Arrogate |
| Breeder: Alastar Thoroughbred Co | Dam: Stiffed |
| Trainer: Graham Motion | Color: Gray/roan |
| Jockey: John Velazquez |
Affirmative Lady unleashed a sharp rally from midfield to win the Gulfstream Park Oaks by two lengths, her third top-three finish in a Road to the Kentucky Oaks qualifier. But with a career-best 89 Brisnet Speed rating, she hasn’t run as fast as the Kentucky Oaks favorites.
| Total 6 start(s) | Top Speed Rating: (90) when winning the Rachel Alexandra (G2) at Fair Grounds. |
| Wins: 4 | Total Earnings: $501,310 |
| Place: 1 | |
| Show: 1 |
| Owner: Godolphin | Sire: Into Mischief |
| Breeder: Godolphin | Dam: Pretty City Dancer |
| Trainer: Brendan Walsh | Color: Bay |
| Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione |
Pretty Mischievous exits a productive run at Fair Grounds, where she won the Untapable S. and Rachel Alexandra (G2) before finishing second in the Fair Grounds Oaks (G2). She won two of her three starts at Churchill Downs last fall and has top-four potential in the Kentucky Oaks.
| Total 7 start(s) | Top Speed Rating: (91) when finishing second in the Fantasy (G3) at Oaklawn Park. |
| Wins: 1 | Total Earnings: $199,644 |
| Place: 2 | |
| Show: 0 |
| Owner: Richard Bahde | Sire: Collected |
| Breeder: Brereton C. Jones | Dam: Yankee Union |
| Trainer: Randy Morse | Color: Gray/roan |
| Jockey: Rafael Bejarano |
After finishing second behind Wet Paint in the Martha Washington and Fantasy, Taxed is the first also-eligible entrant in an overflow field. She’ll need a scratch in order to compete, but could be a live longshot based on her fine tries against the favorite.
| Total 4 start(s) | Top Speed Rating: (97) when finishing third in the Ashland (G1) at Keeneland. |
| Wins: 2 | Total Earnings: $262,575 |
| Place: 0 | |
| Show: 2 |
| Owner: Stonestreet Stables | Sire: Curlin |
| Breeder: Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings | Dam: Dreaming of Julia |
| Trainer: Todd Pletcher | Color: Bay |
| Jockey: Luis Saez |
Winner of the 1 1/8-mile Demoiselle (G2) last fall, Julia Shining produced a determined rally to finish third in the Ashland (G1) last time out. She was beaten less than one length and earned a strong Brisnet Speed rating, but needs two scratches in order to compete on Friday.
| Total 5 start(s) | Top Speed Rating: (93) when winning the Rags to Riches S. at Churchill Downs. |
| Wins: 3 | Total Earnings: $478,610 |
| Place: 0 | |
| Show: 1 |
| Owner: Gold Standard Racing Stable | Sire: Into Mischief |
| Breeder: Candy Meadows | Dam: Tapella |
| Trainer: Tom Amoss | Color: Gray/roan |
| Jockey: Edgar Morales |
Hoosier Philly went 3-for-3 at Churchill Downs last year, most notably dominating the Rags to Riches S. and Golden Rod (G2). But distant defeats in the Rachel Alexandra (G2) and Fair Grounds Oaks (G2) have left her as the third also-eligible in the Kentucky Oaks field.
FOLLOW FOR UPDATES AND EXCLUSIVES
Missed something? Catch up on past Kentucky Derby news
