Study Guide: 2023 Kentucky Derby

May 03, 2023 J. Keeler Johnson

Saturday's 149th running of the $3 million Kentucky Derby (G1) at Churchill Downs has attracted a deep and competitive field. There are 13 graded stakes winners and four Grade 1 winners among the 23 entries, from which a maximum of 20 horses will be allowed to start.

Let's take a race-by-race look at the field:

Total 5 start(s)	Top Speed Rating: (99) when finishing second in the Wood Memorial (G2) at Aqueduct.
Wins: 3	Total Earnings: $404,375
Place: 1
Show: 0

Owner: Gary and Mary West	Sire: Candy Ride
Breeder: Gary and Mary West Stables	Dam: Actress
Trainer: Brad Cox	Color: Gray/roan
Jockey: Manny Franco

Withers (G3) winner Hit Show missed by just a nose when second in the Wood Memorial (G2) last time out, but has finished behind Kentucky Derby rivals Lord Miles, Confidence Game, and Rocket Can at various points in his career. He’ll need improvement to turn the tables.

Total 6 start(s)	Top Speed Rating: (102) when finishing second in the Blue Grass (G1) at Keeneland.
Wins: 2	Total Earnings: $489,900
Place: 2
Show: 0

Owner: Westerberg, Mrs. John Magnier, Jonathan Poulin, Derrick Smith, and Michael B. Tabor	Sire: Justify
Breeder: Hunter Valley and Mountmellick Farm	Dam: Diva Delite
Trainer: Brad Cox	Color: Bay
Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione

Verifying has struggled with consistency, but exits a game runner-up finish in a fast renewal of the Blue Grass (G1). Breaking sharply and avoiding trouble from post 2 will be the key for this speedy colt.

Total 8 start(s)	Top Speed Rating: (107) when winning the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) at Turfway Park.
Wins: 4	Total Earnings: $683,450
Place: 1
Show: 1

Owner: Patricia's Hope, Phillip Sagan, and Madaket Stables	Sire: Hard Spun
Breeder: Phillip Sagan	Dam: Mia Torri
Trainer: Larray Rivelli	Color: Chestnut
Jockey: Jareth Loveberry

Two Phil’s earned a powerful 107 Brisnet Speed rating when dominating the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) over the Tapeta track at Turfway Park, but must prove he can replicate that flashy form on dirt. Drawing post 3 may lead to a tricky trip.

Total 7 start(s)	Top Speed Rating: (95) when winning the Rebel (G2) at Oaklawn Park.
Wins: 3	Total Earnings: $785,525
Place: 1
Show: 2

Owner: Don't Tell My Wife Stables and Ocean Reef Racing	Sire: Candy Ride
Breeder: Summer Wind Equine	Dam: Eblouissante
Trainer: Keith Desormeaux	Color: Dark bay/brown
Jockey: James Graham

Two-time Churchill Downs winner Confidence Game won the $1 million Rebel (G2) back in February, but hasn’t raced since. The layoff is a question mark; it’s been decades since a horse won the Derby off such a lengthy break.

Total 5 start(s)	Top Speed Rating: (102) when winning the Blue Grass (G1) at Keeneland.
Wins: 4	Total Earnings: $883,650
Place: 0
Show: 1

Owner: Whisper Hill Farm and Gainesway Stable	Sire: Tapit
Breeder: Gainesway Thoroughbreds	Dam: Danzatrice
Trainer: Todd Pletcher	Color: Gray/roan
Jockey: Luis Saez

Stretch-running Tapit Trice has rallied to impressive victories in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) and Blue Grass (G1), but he takes time finding his best stride and must avoid falling too far behind while breaking from an inside post at Churchill Downs. A clear, unencumbered run would help Tapit Trice, but that’s not guaranteed for a stretch runner in the Derby.

Total 3 start(s)	Top Speed Rating: (98) when winning the Louisiana Derby (G2) at Fair Grounds.
Wins: 3	Total Earnings: $657,300
Place: 0
Show: 0

Owner: Spendthrift Farm	Sire: Uncle Mo
Breeder: Parks Investment Group	Dam: Lady Tapit
Trainer: Todd Pletcher	Color: Bay
Jockey: Jose Ortiz

The undefeated Kingsbarns was an eye-catching winner of the Louisiana Derby (G2) in his third career start, but he benefited from setting a very slow pace and may have to adapt to rallying tactics in the Kentucky Derby. That could be tricky while breaking from the inside half of a giant field.

Total 7 start(s)	Top Speed Rating: (98) when winning the Sham (G3) at Santa Anita.
Wins: 2	Total Earnings: $345,650
Place: 3
Show: 2

Owner: SF Racing, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables, Robert E. Masterson, Stonestreet Stables, Jay A. Schoenfarber, Waves Edge Capital, and Catherine Donovan	Sire: Good Magic
Breeder: Woods Edge Farm	Dam: Allanah
Trainer: Tim Yakteen	Color: Gray/roan
Jockey: John Velazquez

Reincarnate has early speed and figures to be a pace player, but a weakening third-place finish in the Arkansas Derby (G1) suggests he’ll need improvement to challenge for a top-five finish against tougher competition on Derby Day.

Total 3 start(s)	Top Speed Rating: (101) when winning his debut at Gulfstream Park.
Wins: 1	Total Earnings: $247,200
Place: 1
Show: 0

Owner: OGMA Investments, Ramiro Restrepo, Sterling Racing, and CMNWLTH	Sire: Good Magic
Breeder: Grandview Equine	Dam: Puca
Trainer: Gustavo Delgado	Color: Chestnut
Jockey: Javier Castellano

Mage ran well against Kentucky Derby favorite Forte in the Florida Derby (G1), finishing second after launching a powerful rally around the far turn. But Mage has only run three times and didn’t race at age two, so inexperience is a question mark for this talented but lightly raced colt.

Total 6 start(s)	Top Speed Rating: (99) when finishing third in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) at Santa Anita.
Wins: 1	Total Earnings: $216,300
Place: 0
Show: 3

Owner: C R K Stable	Sire: Curlin
Breeder: Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings	Dam: Winding Way
Trainer: John Shirreffs	Color: Bay
Jockey: Juan Hernandez

A wide trip compromised Skinner when he rallied to finish third by half a length in the Santa Anita Derby (G1). If a hot pace unfolds at Churchill Downs, this beautifully bred son of Curlin is eligible to outrun his odds and maybe even challenge for victory.

Total 7 start(s)	Top Speed Rating: (105) when winning the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) at Los Alamitos.
Wins: 4	Total Earnings: $884,200
Place: 1
Show: 2

Owner: Pierre Jean Amestory Jr., Leslie A. Amestoy, and Roger L. Beasley	Sire: Practical Joke
Breeder: Chad Brown and Head of Plains Partners	Dam: Ack Naughty
Trainer: Tim Yakteen	Color: Bay
Jockey: Ramon Vazquez

Practical Move doesn’t mind racing in traffic, having rallied up the rail to win the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2), San Felipe (G2), and Santa Anita Derby (G1) in succession. He’s one of the fastest contenders on paper after posting a trio of triple-digit Brisnet Speed ratings and can’t be counted out of the Kentucky Derby win picture.

Total 5 start(s)	Top Speed Rating: (97) when finishing third in the Lexington (G3) at Keeneland.
Wins: 1	Total Earnings: $327,850
Place: 2
Show: 2

Owner: Winchell Thoroughbreds	Sire: Gun Runner
Breeder: Winchell Thoroughbreds	Dam: Easy Tap
Trainer: Steve Asmussen	Color: Chestnut
Jockey: Joel Rosario

Disarm rallied nicely from behind a slow pace to finish second in the Louisiana Derby (G2), but a subsequent third in the Lexington (G3) at Keeneland was less inspiring. He’ll need a rebound to his Louisiana Derby form if he’s going to challenge on Derby Day.

Total 6 start(s)	Top Speed Rating: (96) when winning the Gun Runner S. at Fair Grounds.
Wins: 2	Total Earnings: $238,050
Place: 0
Show: 2

Owner: Albaugh Family Stables and West Point Thoroughbreds	Sire: Quality Road
Breeder: Colts Neck Stables	Dam: Out Post
Trainer: Brad Cox	Color: Bay
Jockey: Florent Geroux

A gate-to-wire winner of the Gun Runner S. during the winter, Jace’s Road exits a third-place finish in the Louisiana Derby (G2), where he weakened to finish third after pressing a slow pace. He’ll need improvement to factor against tougher competition at Churchill Downs.

Total 6 start(s)	Top Speed Rating: (96) when finishing second in the Risen Star (G2) at Santa Anita.
Wins: 1	Total Earnings: $247,500
Place: 1
Show: 1

Owner: R.T. Racing Stable and Cypress Creek Equine	Sire: Into Mischief
Breeder: Southern Equine Stables	Dam: Greenfield d'Oro
Trainer: Kenny McPeek	Color: Bay
Jockey: Brian Hernandez Jr.

Stretch-running Sun Thunder is adding blinkers after cracking the top five without winning in a quartet of Road to the Kentucky Derby qualifiers. This is by far his toughest test to date, but if the blinkers sharpen Sun Thunder’s focus and speed, improvement isn’t out of the question.

Total 6 start(s)	Top Speed Rating: (101) when winning the Arkansas Derby (G1) at Oaklawn Park.
Wins: 4	Total Earnings: $1,069,375
Place: 1
Show: 0

Owner: Albaugh Family Stables	Sire: Classic Empire
Breeder: Forgotten Land Investment and Black Diamond Equine	Dam: Armony's Angel
Trainer: Brad Cox	Color: Bay
Jockey: Flavien Prat

Angel of Empire unleashed giant homestretch rallies to win the Risen Star (G2) and Arkansas Derby (G1) in eye-catching fashion. He finished seriously fast on the clock in the Arkansas Derby, and a similar turn-of-foot at Churchill Downs will put Angel of Empire in contention for victory.

Total 7 start(s)	Top Speed Rating: (103) when winning the Fountain of Youth (G2) at Gulfstream Park.
Wins: 6	Total Earnings: $2,409,830
Place: 0
Show: 0

Owner: Repole Stable and St. Elias Stable	Sire: Violence
Breeder: South Gate Farm	Dam: Queen Caroline
Trainer: Todd Pletcher	Color: Dark bay/brown
Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.

Last year’s champion two-year-old male Forte has won five consecutive graded stakes, including four Grade 1 prizes. He overcame an unfavorable trip to rally and win the Florida Derby (G1) with a big move down the homestretch and ranks as the horse to beat at Churchill Downs.

Total 7 start(s)	Top Speed Rating: (94) when finishing fifth in the Blue Grass (G1) at Keeneland.
Wins: 2	Total Earnings: $296,328
Place: 1
Show: 1

Owner: Andrew N. Warren and Rania Warren	Sire: Violence
Breeder: Rock Ridge Thoroughbreds	Dam: Lemon Belle
Trainer: Ben Colebrook	Color: Bay
Jockey: Gerardo Corrales

Raise Cain capitalized on a fast pace to post a 7 1/2-length romp in the Gotham (G3), but followed up with a fifth-place finish behind Tapit Trice in the Blue Grass (G1). His career-best 94 Brisnet Speed rating looks a bit light against the Kentucky Derby field.

Total 8 start(s)	Top Speed Rating: (N/A)
Wins: 4	Total Earnings: $1,162,164
Place: 0
Show: 2

Owner: Hiroyuki Asanuma	Sire: Mind Your Biscuits
Breeder: Shadai Farm	Dam: Amour Poesie
Trainer: Hidetaka Otonashi	Color: Chestnut
Jockey: Christophe Lemaire

Japanese raider Derma Sotogake made a terrific impression in the UAE Derby (G2), leading all the way to win by 5 1/2 lengths in a very fast time. He’s versatile in terms of running style, and drawing an outside post gives him options for setting or stalking the pace as needed. The UAE Derby has yet to produce a Kentucky Derby winner, but Derma Sotogake appears poised to change that storyline.

Total 7 start(s)	Top Speed Rating: (98) when finishing second in the Fountain of Youth (G2) at Gulfstream Park.
Wins: 2	Total Earnings: $383,413
Place: 2
Show: 0

Owner: Frank Fletcher Racing Operations	Sire: Into Mischief
Breeder: Woodford Thoroughbreds	Dam: Tension
Trainer: Bill Mott	Color: Gray/roan
Jockey: Junior Alvarado

Rocket Can won the Holy Bull (G3) during the winter, but a distant runner-up finish behind Forte in the Fountain of Youth (G2) and a fourth to Angel of Empire in the Arkansas Derby (G1) suggest Rocket Can has form to find against the Kentucky Derby favorites. Perhaps adding blinkers will trigger a step forward.

Total 5 start(s)	Top Speed Rating: (99) when winning the Wood Memorial (G2) at Aqueduct.
Wins: 2	Total Earnings: $451,100
Place: 0
Show: 1

Owner: Vegso Racing Stables	Sire: Curlin
Breeder: Vegso Racing Stable	Dam: Lady Esme
Trainer: Saffie Joseph Jr.	Color: Bay
Jockey: Paco Lopez

Lord Miles came out on the winning end of a three-horse photo finish in the Wood Memorial (G2), springing a 59-1 upset to qualify to the Kentucky Derby. It was a fine effort, but Lord Miles previously finished off the board in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) and Holy Bull (G3), so he needs to find a way to turn the tables on Tapit Trice and Rocket Can.

Total 5 start(s)	Top Speed Rating: N/A
Wins: 2	Total Earnings: $337,889
Place: 1
Show: 1

Owner: Lion Race Horse Co.	Sire: Drefong
Breeder: Lake Villa Farm	Dam: Pan de Ring
Trainer: Yoshito Yahagi	Color: Chestnut
Jockey: Ryusei Sakai

The second Japanese raider is Continuar, winner of the Cattleya S. on the Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby. He finished behind Derma Sotogake for the third time when coming home third by 10 lengths in the UAE Derby, so Continuar has form to find against his compatriot.

Total 7 start(s)	Top Speed Rating: (99) when winning a Gulfstream Park allowance optional claimer.
Wins: 2	Total Earnings: $246,350
Place: 0
Show: 3

Owner: Albaugh Family Stables and Castleton Lyons	Sire: Into Mischief
Breeder: Castleton Lyons and Kilboy Estate	Dam: Areyoucominghere
Trainer: Dale Romans	Color: Bay
Jockey: Joel Rosario

Third behind Forte in both the Fountain of Youth (G2) and Florida Derby (G1), Cyclone Mischief has speed and figures to be at least a pace player if he draws in off the Kentucky Derby also-eligible list.

Total 6 start(s)	Top Speed Rating: (100) when finishing second in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) at Santa Anita.
Wins: 4	Total Earnings: $386,854
Place: 2
Show: 0

Owner: Hiroaki Arai	Sire: Shanghai Bobby
Breeder: Hirano Bokujo	Dam: Namura Nadeshiko
Trainer: Terunobu Fujita	Color: Dark bay/brown
Jockey: Kazushi Kimura

The second also-eligible entrant is Mandarin Hero, who rallied strongly to finish second by a nose in the Santa Anita Derby (G1). That effort yielded a sharp 100 Brisnet Speed rating, so Mandarin Hero can’t be counted out of the mix if he’s allowed to start on Saturday.

Total 6 start(s)	Top Speed Rating: (96) when finishing second in the Arkansas Derby (G1) at Oaklawn Park.
Wins: 1	Total Earnings: $322,350
Place: 3
Show: 0

Owner: Brereton C. Jones and Naber Racing	Sire: Creative Cause
Breeder: Brereton C. Jones	Dam: Believe You Will
Trainer: Ron Moquett	Color: Gray/roan
Jockey: Rafael Bejarano

King Russell launched a nice rally from off the pace to finish second in the Arkansas Derby (G1), earning a career-best 96 Brisnet Speed rating, but he’ll need three scratches to get a rematch with Angel of Empire in the Kentucky Derby.