Study Guide: 2021 Gun Runner Stakes
Dec 23, 2021
Rocket Dawg winning his debut at Churchill Downs (Coady Photography)
The Road to the Kentucky Derby just got a little bit longer. Sunday's inaugural running of the $100,000 Gun Runner S. at Fair Grounds serves as a new steppingstone to the 'Run for the Roses,' awarding qualification points to the top four finishers on a 10-4-2-1 basis.
Held over 1 1/16 miles, the Gun Runner is the first of four Kentucky Derby qualifiers taking place at Fair Grounds this season. Let's examine the field:
| Total 2 start(s) |
Top Speed Rating: (95) when breaking his maiden at Churchill Downs. |
| Wins: 1 | Total Earnings: $70,639 |
| Place: 0 | |
| Show: 0 |
| Owner: Winchell Thoroughbreds | Sire: Not This Time |
| Breeder: Westwind Farms | Dam: Silent Candy |
| Trainer: Steve Asmussen | Color: Bay |
| Jockey: Brian Hernandez |
Epicenter didn't fire his best shot when debuting in a seven-furlong dash at Churchill Downs, carving out a quick pace before weakening to finish sixth. But he took a meaningful step forward when stretching out over one mile for his second start, leading essentially all the way to trounce his pursuers by 3 1/2 lengths. The 95 Brisnet Speed rating he posted ranks as the highest figure in the Gun Runner field, stamping Epicenter as a key win contender under hot jockey Brian Hernandez (a 25% winner at Fair Grounds this meet).
| Total 5 start(s) |
Top Speed Rating: (84) when finishing second in the Jean Lafitte S. at Delta Downs. |
| Wins: 2 | Total Earnings: $57,684 |
| Place: 1 | |
| Show: 0 |
| Owner: Cypress Creek Equine | Sire: Tiznow |
| Breeder: Southern Equine Stables | Dam: Surprises Welcomed |
| Trainer: Ricky Courville | Color: Bay |
| Jockey: Ashley Broussard |
It's safe to say Waita Minute Hayes is an effective dirt runner—he's crossed the wire first in all three of his starts on dirt, although he was disqualified to second place for causing interference in the Jean Lafitte S. at Delta Downs. But although Waita Minute Hayes' flashy race record is appealing, his best performances have come against easier company at Delta Downs and Evangeline Downs, and his career-best 84 Brisnet Speed rating looks a little light compared to the other Gun Runner entrants.
| Total 1 start(s) |
Top Speed Rating: (90) when winning his debut at Churchill Downs. |
| Wins: 1 | Total Earnings: $69,460 |
| Place: 0 | |
| Show: 0 |
| Owner: Frank Fletcher Racing Operations and Ten Strike Racing | Sire: Classic Empire |
| Breeder: Steven Nicholson and Brandi Nicholson | Dam: Rever de Vous |
| Trainer: Brad Cox | Color: Bay |
| Jockey: Florent Geroux |
A son of juvenile champion and Preakness S. (G1) runner-up Classic Empire, Rocket Dawg was impressive in his debut sprinting seven furlongs at Churchill Downs. After settling back in seventh place, the bay colt unleashed a wide rally to power past his rivals and dominate by 5 1/2 lengths. The strength of this performance was reiterated when runner-up Grantham returned to win his next start. Conditioned by hot trainer Brad Cox, Rocket Dawg is bred to stretch out in distance and will be guided on Sunday by hot jockey Florent Geroux. Cox trainees often improve off their debuts (and they strike at a 29% rate when running long for the first time), so if anyone can challenge Epicenter, it's likely Rocket Dawg.
| Total 5 start(s) |
Top Speed Rating: (90) when breaking his maiden at Churchill Downs. |
| Wins: 1 | Total Earnings: $103,460 |
| Place: 1 | |
| Show: 2 |
| Owner: Mark H. Stanley and Nancy W. Stanley | Sire: Curlin |
| Breeder: CresRan | Dam: Tiz Miz Sue |
| Trainer: Dallas Stewart | Color: Chestnut |
| Jockey: Reylu Gutierrez |
Surfer Dude has taken his time coming to hand for trainer Dallas Stewart. The stoutly bred son of Curlin was beaten in his first four starts, with Epicenter and Tejano Twist among his conquerors. But Surfer Dude showed improvement in a seven-furlong maiden special weight at Churchill Downs last month, tracking the pace before battling to victory by a neck. Surfer Dude's Brisnet Speed ratings are strong, and he looms as one of few speed horses in the Gun Runner field. But turning the tables on Epicenter and Tejano Twist (while simultaneously stretching out in distance) could be challenging.
| Total 4 start(s) |
Top Speed Rating: (85) when finishing third in a Churchill Downs allowance. |
| Wins: 1 | Total Earnings: $104,950 |
| Place: 0 | |
| Show: 2 |
| Owner: Michael McLoughlin | Sire: Distorted Humor |
| Breeder: Stonehaven Steadings | Dam: Santa Vindi |
| Trainer: Tom Amoss | Color: Dark bay/brown |
| Jockey: James Graham |
A stretch-running colt conditioned by hot trainer Tom Amoss (a 33% winner this meet), Kevin's Folly showed promising form sprinting during the summer, even finishing third in the Hopeful S. (G1) at Saratoga. But Kevin's Folly has struggled since stretching out over 1 1/16 miles, finishing eighth in the Breeders' Futurity (G1) and third in a Churchill Downs allowance, so the distance of the Gun Runner is a question mark.
| Total 8 start(s) |
Top Speed Rating: (94) when winning the Lively Shively S. at Churchill Downs. |
| Wins: 3 | Total Earnings: $260,670 |
| Place: 3 | |
| Show: 0 |
| Owner: Tom R. Durant | Sire: Practical Joke |
| Breeder: Tom Durant | Dam: Haley's Lolipop |
| Trainer: Bret Calhoun | Color: Chestnut |
| Jockey: Joe Rocco |
The only proven stakes winner in the Gun Runner field is Tejano Twist, a veteran of eight starts. The late-running gelding enters off a tenacious victory in the 6 1/2-furlong Lively Shively S. at Churchill Downs, where he battled to victory by half a length with a strong 94 Brisnet Speed rating. But can Tejano Twist reproduce his winning rally over 1 1/16 miles? He's never run farther than 6 1/2 furlongs, and his pedigree is geared toward speed, so stretching out in distance is a meaningful obstacle to overcome.
| Total 3 start(s) | Top Speed Rating: (85) when winning a maiden claimer at Churchill Downs. |
| Wins: 1 | Total Earnings: $36,789 |
| Place: 0 | |
| Show: 1 |
| Owner: RED TR-Racing | Sire: Keen Ice |
| Breeder: Calumet Farm | Dam: Gold Strike |
| Trainer: Eric Reed | Color: Chestnut |
| Jockey: Sonny Leon |
Rich Strike first rose to prominence when smashing a $30,000 maiden claimer at Churchill Downs by 17 1/4 lengths, an eye-catching performance in his first start on dirt. Claimed out of that event by trainer Eric Reed, Rich Strike subsequently rallied to finish third in a Keeneland allowance, beaten 3 1/2 lengths while gaining ground late. The son of Travers S. (G1) winner Keen Ice is bred to improve with maturity, but enters the Gun Runner a bit light from a Brisnet Speed rating perspective. A top-four finish is within reach, but Rich Strike may need improvement to beat the favorites to the winner's circle.
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